Hurricane EMILY

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HURRICANE EMILY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  21
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL052005
0300Z SAT JUL 16 2005
 
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR JAMAICA AND FOR ALL OF THE
CAYMAN ISLANDS.
 
A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  PREPARATIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHERN COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM PUNTA SALINAS WESTWARD
TO THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC/HAITI BORDER...AND FOR THE ENTIRE
SOUTHWESTERN PENINSULA OF HAITI FROM THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC/HAITI
BORDER TO PORT-AU-PRINCE.
 
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF EMILY.
 
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.1N  74.2W AT 16/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  15 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT  16 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  954 MB
EYE DIAMETER  10 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 115 KT WITH GUSTS TO 140 KT.
64 KT....... 40NE  20SE  10SW  30NW.
50 KT....... 60NE  30SE  20SW  50NW.
34 KT.......120NE  80SE  50SW 100NW.
12 FT SEAS..200NE 100SE  75SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.1N  74.2W AT 16/0300Z
AT 16/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.9N  73.4W
 
FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 15.8N  76.6W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 40NE  20SE  15SW  30NW.
50 KT... 60NE  30SE  20SW  60NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE  50SW 100NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 17.0N  79.9W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 40NE  20SE  15SW  30NW.
50 KT... 60NE  30SE  20SW  60NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE  50SW 100NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 18.6N  83.2W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 40NE  20SE  15SW  30NW.
50 KT... 60NE  30SE  20SW  60NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE  50SW 100NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 20.1N  86.4W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
50 KT... 60NE  30SE  20SW  60NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE  50SW 100NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 22.5N  92.0W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
50 KT... 60NE  30SE  20SW  60NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE  50SW 100NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 20/0000Z 24.5N  96.5W
MAX WIND  95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 21/0000Z 26.5N 101.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.1N  74.2W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/0900Z
 
FORECASTER KNABB
 
 
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