Hurricane KENNETH

ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
HURRICANE KENNETH DISCUSSION NUMBER  42
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 PM PDT SAT SEP 24 2005
 
LATEST VISIBLE IMAGERY OF KENNETH DEPICTS A SYMETRICAL SYSTEM WITH
GOOD OUTFLOW ALOFT. INFRARED IMAGERY ALSO REVEALS A MOSTLY ENCLOSED
EYEWALL WITH A PARTIAL OPENING IN THE SW QUADRANT. THE DVORAK
ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB INDICATE KENNETH IS VERY LIKELY A
HURRICANE OR CLOSE TO IT. LIKEWISE...THE MOST RECENT CSU-CIRA AMSU
INTENSITY ESTIMATE YIELDS 64 KTS. BASED ON THIS INFORMATION...THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS 65 KTS WHICH MAKES KENNETH A CATEGORY ONE
HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE.

SHIPS INTENSITY AND FSU SUPER ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE INDICATE KENNETH
WILL REMAIN AT CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE STRENGTH FOR THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS. THE SHEAR REMAINS WEAK OVER THE SYSTEM AND THE TROPICAL
CYCLONE STAYS OVER 27 DEGREE CELSIUS SSTS DURING THE NEXT 48 HRS.
KENNETH WILL START TO WEAKEN IN THE LATER FORECAST PERIOD AS
WESTERLY SHEAR INCREASES AND OCEAN SSTS LOWER TO 25 DEGREES
CELSIUS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS A BLEND OF THE SHIPS AND FSU
SUPER ENSEMBLE FORECASTS KEEPING KENNETH A HURRICANE THROUGH 36 HRS
AND THEN GRADUALLY WEAKENING IT AS A TROPICAL STORM THROUGHOUT THE
REMAINING FORECAST PERIOD.

INITIAL MOTION IS 270/3 WHICH AMOUNTS TO A SLOW CRAWL. KENNETH
STUBBORNLY REFUSES TO MAKE IT ACROSS 140W. THE SYSTEM IS WEDGED IN
WEAK STEERING FLOW ON THE SOUTHEASTERN SIDE OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE
AND ON THE NORTHWESTERN EDGE OF A MID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE. MOST
DYNAMICAL MODELS AGREE THAT KENNETH WILL MOVE SLOWLY WEST AND
WEST-SOUTHWEST FOR THE NEXT TWO DAYS. BEYOND 72 HRS...A MID TO
UPPER LEVEL LOW SETS UP NORTHWEST OF KENNETH AND THIS STARTS TO
ACCELERATE THE SYSTEM TOWARD THE NORTHWEST. MID-LEVEL RIDGING IS
THEN EXPECTED TO MOVE THE SYSTEM MORE WESTWARD IN DAYS 4 AND 5. 
 
FORECASTER SISKO/KNABB
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      25/0300Z 16.4N 139.4W    65 KT
 12HR VT     25/1200Z 16.3N 139.8W    65 KT
 24HR VT     26/0000Z 16.1N 140.2W    65 KT
 36HR VT     26/1200Z 16.1N 140.8W    65 KT
 48HR VT     27/0000Z 16.5N 141.6W    60 KT
 72HR VT     28/0000Z 18.0N 143.1W    55 KT
 96HR VT     29/0000Z 19.5N 145.5W    50 KT
120HR VT     30/0000Z 20.0N 149.0W    40 KT
 
 
$$
NNNN