Hurricane KENNETH

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TROPICAL STORM KENNETH DISCUSSION NUMBER  31
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 AM PDT THU SEP 22 2005

ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY AND AN EARLIER AMSU-B OVERPASS DEPICT THAT
DEEP CONVECTION CONTINUES TO DEVELOP AND EXPAND OVER THE
CIRCULATION CENTER. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND UW-CIMSS UPPER LEVEL
WINDS SUGGEST IMPROVED VENTILATION OVER THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT.
DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 55 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB...AND 45 KT
FROM AFWA. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 50 KT IS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN
THESE ESTIMATES. THE GFDL NOW SUGGESTS GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION TO A
HURRICANE IN 48 HOURS...WHILE THE SHIPS MODEL AND THE FSU
SUPERENSEMBLE CONTINUE TO SHOW A GRADUAL WEAKENING. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST WILL INDICATE A SLOW WEAKENING THROUGH THE
PERIOD...HOWEVER...IF THE ENVIRONMENT ALOFT CONTINUES TO
IMPROVE...THE NEXT ADVISORY PACKAGE MAY HAVE TO BE ADJUSTED MORE
TOWARD THE STRENGTHENING GFDL SOLUTION.

A QUIKSCAT PASS AND AN SSM/I OVERPASS INDICATE THAT KENNETH
HAS...PERHAPS TEMPORARILY...INCREASED IN FORWARD SPEED...280/8.
KENNETH SHOULD SLOWLY MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD WITHIN THE MID- LAYER
FLOW OF A RIDGE EXTENDING WESTWARD OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC FROM
TEXAS/MEXICO THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE DYNAMICAL MODELS ARE
GATHERED INTO TWO CLUSTERS. THE GFDL/GFS AND THE GFS ENSEMBLE
REFLECT A NORTH TO NORTHEAST DRIFT...INTERACTING WITH TROPICAL
STORM MAX. THE UKMET/NOGAPS/GFDN AND THE FSU SUPERENSEMBLE SUGGEST
A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOVEMENT...WITH VARYING FORWARD SPEEDS. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE AND HEDGES
TOWARD THE LATTER CLUSTER.
 
FORECASTER ROBERTS/PASCH
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      22/0900Z 15.2N 135.0W    50 KT
 12HR VT     22/1800Z 15.3N 135.4W    45 KT
 24HR VT     23/0600Z 15.5N 136.2W    45 KT
 36HR VT     23/1800Z 15.7N 136.8W    45 KT
 48HR VT     24/0600Z 15.8N 137.4W    35 KT
 72HR VT     25/0600Z 16.0N 138.5W    35 KT
 96HR VT     26/0600Z 16.0N 139.5W    35 KT
120HR VT     27/0600Z 16.0N 140.5W    35 KT
 
 
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