Tropical Storm CALVIN
ZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL DEPRESSION CALVIN DISCUSSION NUMBER 9
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 PM PDT TUE JUN 28 2005
HIGH-RESOLUTION VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE CENTER...IF IT STILL
EXISTS...HAS BECOME POORLY DEFINED. IT APPEARS THAT CALVIN IS IN
THE PROCESS OF DEGENERATING INTO AN EAST-WEST ELONGATED TROUGH. A
SMALL LOW-CLOUD SWIRL HAS BEEN ROTATING AROUND THE EASTERN SIDE OF
THIS TROUGH...BUT CONTINUITY FROM NIGHTTIME IR CHANNEL COMBINATION
IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THIS WEAK SWIRL IS NOT THE TROPICAL CYCLONE.
CALVIN HAS WEAKENED TO AN ESTIMATED 25 KT INTENSITY...AND GIVEN THE
HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT OF STRONG EASTERLY SHEAR...CONTINUED WEAKENING
IS LIKELY. ADVISORIES MAY BE DISCONTINUED LATER THIS EVENING.
THE CYCLONE HAS MOVED A LITTLE SOUTH OF WEST AND INITIAL MOTION
ESTIMATE IS NOW 260/10. CALVIN...OR ITS REMNANT...IS PREDICTED TO
MOVE ON A GENERALLY WESTWARD TRACK...FOLLOWING THE NEAR-SURFACE
EASTERLY FLOW...OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
FORECASTER PASCH
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 28/2100Z 15.5N 105.1W 25 KT
12HR VT 29/0600Z 15.4N 106.6W 25 KT...DISSIPATING
24HR VT 29/1800Z 15.3N 108.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
36HR VT 30/0600Z 15.2N 110.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
48HR VT 30/1800Z 15.1N 111.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
72HR VT 01/1800Z 15.0N 113.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
96HR VT 02/1800Z...DISSIPATED
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