Hurricane ADRIAN

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TROPICAL STORM ADRIAN DISCUSSION NUMBER   2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 PM PDT TUE MAY 17 2005
 
SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW INCREASED CURVATURE IN THE CONVECTIVE BANDS
AND DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE NOW 35 KT...35 KT...AND 30 KT
FROM TAFB... AFWA...AND SAB RESPECTIVELY.  THUS THE CYCLONE IS
BEING UPGRADED TO A TROPICAL STORM.  THERE IS WELL-DEFINED
UPPER-TROPOSPHERIC OUTFLOW OVER THE SYSTEM AND VERTICAL SHEAR
SHOULD NOT BECOME PROHIBITIVELY STRONG OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS OR
SO.  STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST A LA THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY PACKAGE. 
THIS IS A LITTLE ABOVE THE SHIPS MODEL FORECAST...BUT LESS THAN
INDICATED BY THE GFDL.  SHOULD THE TROPICAL CYCLONE SURVIVE ITS
TREK OVER THE RUGGED TERRAIN OF CENTRAL AMERICA...IT WILL ENCOUNTER
AN INCREASINGLY HOSTILE UPPER-LEVEL WIND REGIME.  SHIPS...USING THE
GFS MODEL FORECAST WINDS...SHOWS 30-40 KT OF VERTICAL SHEAR BY DAYS
4-5.  THEREFORE THE OFFICIAL FORECAST DOES NOT CALL FOR
RE-STRENGTHENING.

INITIAL MOTION IS 055/04.  THE MAIN STEERING MECHANISM IS A
MID-TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH THAT IS PREDICTED BY THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS
TO BE NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF ADRIAN DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD. 
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH IS LIKELY TO CARRY
THE CYCLONE NORTHEASTWARD WITH A GRADUAL ACCELERATION.  THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR TO ITS PREDECESSOR AND CLOSE TO
THE LATEST GFDL TRACK.

A BIG CONCERN WITH ADRIAN IS ITS POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE EXTREMELY
HEAVY PRECIPITATION OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL AMERICA OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS.  MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE STORM IS ALREADY PRODUCING SOME
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN OVER PORTIONS OF THAT REGION.

FORECASTER PASCH
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      18/0300Z 10.3N  94.7W    35 KT
 12HR VT     18/1200Z 10.7N  93.9W    40 KT
 24HR VT     19/0000Z 11.4N  92.7W    45 KT
 36HR VT     19/1200Z 12.3N  91.4W    50 KT
 48HR VT     20/0000Z 13.5N  89.5W    60 KT...NEAR COAST
 72HR VT     21/0000Z 17.0N  85.5W    30 KT
 96HR VT     22/0000Z 20.5N  80.5W    30 KT
120HR VT     23/0000Z 25.0N  74.0W    30 KT
 
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