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Tropical Depression NINETEEN


ZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN DISCUSSION NUMBER   7
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT SUN OCT 02 2005
 
THE DEPRESSION CONTINUES TO STRUGGLE AGAINST WESTERLY WIND SHEAR. 
SOME DEEP CONVECTION PERSISTS TO THE EAST OF THE PARTIALLY EXPOSED
LOW LEVEL CENTER... BUT OVERALL THE CONVECTION HAS DECREASED IN
BOTH DEPTH AND COVERAGE OVERNIGHT.  DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES AT
06Z REMAINED 30 KT... AND THAT IS THE ADVISORY INTENSITY.  THE
SHIPS MODEL STILL FORECASTS 33 KT AT 24 AND 36 HOURS... AND THERE
IS STILL THE POSSIBILITY THAT THE SYSTEM COULD BRIEFLY REACH
TROPICAL STORM STATUS... BUT PROBABLY JUST BARELY IF IT HAPPENS AT
ALL.  THE WIND SHEAR IS FORECAST TO ONLY GET STRONGER AND THE SSTS
GRADUALLY COOLER ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK... ESPECIALLY BEYOND 36
HOURS... AND THE NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST NOW CALLS FOR DISSIPATION IN
ABOUT 72 HOURS.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 345/7.  ALL MODEL GUIDANCE EXCEPT FOR
GFS AGREES ON A GENERAL NORTHWARD MOTION FOR ABOUT THE NEXT 72
HOURS... FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AND EAST BUT NOT
VERY QUICKLY DUE TO LOW/MID LEVEL RIDGING DEVELOPING NORTH OF THE
WEAKENING CYCLONE.  THE NEW OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS ADJUSTED
ONLY SLIGHTLY EAST OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY TO NUDGE CLOSER TO THE
MODEL CONSENSUS.
 
FORECASTER KNABB
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      02/0900Z 16.0N  34.8W    30 KT
 12HR VT     02/1800Z 17.2N  35.1W    30 KT
 24HR VT     03/0600Z 18.9N  36.0W    35 KT
 36HR VT     03/1800Z 20.5N  36.4W    35 KT
 48HR VT     04/0600Z 22.3N  36.6W    30 KT
 72HR VT     05/0600Z 25.5N  36.0W    25 KT...DISSIPATING
 96HR VT     06/0600Z 28.0N  34.5W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT     07/0600Z 29.0N  31.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 
 
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