Tropical Depression FOURTEEN

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TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN DISCUSSION NUMBER   2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT THU SEP 01 2005
 
THE DEPRESSION HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION DURING THE
AFTERNOON...WITH AN EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION SOUTHEAST OF THE
MAIN AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION. THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW CAUSING THE
SOUTHEASTERLY SHEAR OVER THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE WESTWARD
OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...WHICH SHOULD PLACE THE DEPRESSION UNDER
A SLIGHTLY MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LESS SHEAR. MODEL
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW A LARGE SPLIT IN FORECAST INTENSITIES...
WITH ALL OF THE GLOBAL MODELS EXCEPT THE UKMET MODEL DISSIPATING
THE SYSTEM IN 48-72 HOURS...WHILE THE SHIPS INTENSITY GUIDANCE
BRINGING THE SYSTEM TO NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH IN ABOUT 72 HOURS.
THE FORECAST INTENSITY WILL BE VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS
PACKAGE...WHICH KEEPS THE SYSTEM BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH FOR
12 HOURS FOLLOWED BY SLOW STRENGTHENING. NEEDLESS TO SAY...THIS IS
A VERY LOW-CONFIDENCE FORECAST.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 300/10...SLOWER AND SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT OF
THE PREVIOUS MOTION. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING AROUND THE
SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN
ATLANTIC. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MAKE A GRADUAL TURN TO THE
NORTHWEST OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS THE HIGH BUILDS TO THE EAST AND
AN UPPER LOW REMAINS NEAR 65W BETWEEN BERMUDA AND PUERTO RICO. 
DUE IN LARGE PART TO THE CHANGE IN THE INITIAL MOTION...THE TRACK IS
SHIFTED SLIGHTLY EAST OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...AND REMAINS IN  
CLOSE AGREEMENT WITH THE DYNAMICAL MODEL SUITE THROUGH 48 HOURS.
BEYOND THIS TIME...THE FORECAST TRACK FOLLOWS A GENERAL MOTION TO
THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH-NORTHWEST BETWEEN THE HIGH TO THE EAST AND
THE UPPER LOW TO THE WEST. 
 
FORECASTER MOLLEDA/AVILA
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      01/2100Z 19.6N  46.6W    30 KT
 12HR VT     02/0600Z 20.3N  48.0W    30 KT
 24HR VT     02/1800Z 21.3N  49.7W    35 KT
 36HR VT     03/0600Z 22.5N  51.4W    40 KT
 48HR VT     03/1800Z 23.7N  52.9W    45 KT
 72HR VT     04/1800Z 26.5N  55.5W    50 KT
 96HR VT     05/1800Z 29.5N  57.0W    55 KT
120HR VT     06/1800Z 33.0N  58.0W    55 KT
 
 
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