Hurricane IRENE

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HURRICANE IRENE DISCUSSION NUMBER  44
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT MON AUG 15 2005

IRENE REMAINS WELL ORGANIZED...AND ALTHOUGH NO EYE WAS EVIDENT ON
THE GEOSYNCHRONOUS IMAGERY OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...IT MAY APPEAR
SOON.  DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES CONTINUE TO SUPPORT ABOUT 75
KNOTS...AND THAT IS USED FOR THE ADVISORY INTENSITY.  THE HURRICANE
IS RATHER CLOSE TO A BELT OF MUCH STRONGER WESTERLIES...JUST TO ITS
NORTH...AND SUBSTANTIALLY STRONGER SHEAR.  HOWEVER IRENE HAS TURNED
SOMEWHAT MORE EASTWARD...AND THIS MAY DELAY SLIGHTLY THE INCREASE
IN SHEAR.    HENCE A SMALL INCREASE IN INTENSITY IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO.  BY 48 HOURS...IRENE SHOULD HAVE PASSED
THE NORTH WALL OF THE GULF STREAM AND IS LIKELY TO BEGIN LOSING
TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS.  OFFICIAL FORECAST POINTS ARE GIVEN
THROUGH 96 HOURS BUT GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT IRENE'S
EXTRATROPICAL REMNANT MAY MERGE WITH ANOTHER SYSTEM COMING OFF THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES IN 48-72 HOURS.

INITIAL MOTION IS 050/10...SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY.  NOT MUCH CHANGE IS SEEN IN THE TRACK FORECAST SCENARIO.  
IRENE WILL SOON BE ACCELERATED EAST-NORTHEASTWARD BY THE
MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES.  SHOULD IRENE'S EXTRATROPICAL REMNANTS BE
MAINTAINED AS A DISTINCT ENTITY...THEY WILL LIKELY TURN MORE TO THE
LEFT LATE IN THE PERIOD IN RESPONSE TO AN APPROACHING 500 MB
TROUGH.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS JUST SLIGHTLY SLOWER THAN THAT
FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...BUT GENERALLY A LITTLE FASTER THAN THE
MODEL CONSENSUS.

FORECASTER PASCH
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      15/1500Z 36.5N  67.2W    75 KT
 12HR VT     16/0000Z 37.4N  65.3W    80 KT
 24HR VT     16/1200Z 38.5N  62.5W    75 KT
 36HR VT     17/0000Z 40.0N  59.5W    65 KT
 48HR VT     17/1200Z 42.0N  56.0W    55 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
 72HR VT     18/1200Z 49.0N  46.0W    45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 96HR VT     19/1200Z 57.0N  38.0W    40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT     20/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
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