Tropical Storm IRENE

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TROPICAL STORM IRENE DISCUSSION NUMBER  14
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT SUN AUG 07 2005

A FEW PATCHES OF DEEP CONVECTION REDEVELOPED NEAR THE CENTER AND IN
A SMALL BAND TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST...BUT OVERALL THE CLOUD
PATTERN IS RATHER PALTRY.  EVEN THOUGH IRENE DOES NOT LOOK MUCH
LIKE A TROPICAL STORM ON SATELLITE IMAGES...A QUIKSCAT PASS FROM
AROUND 2115 UTC SHOWED SOME UNCONTAMINATED 35 KT VECTORS IN THE
CIRCULATION.  THUS THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 35 KT.  THE
SYSTEM SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH AN ENVIRONMENT OF
NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR AND DRY AIR FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. 
AFTERWARDS...ASSUMING IRENE SURVIVES...IT WILL ENCOUNTER WARMER SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND...PERHAPS...MORE FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL
CONDITIONS.  THEREFORE SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST AFTER 36
HOURS.  THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
THE LATEST SHIPS OUTPUT.

INITIAL MOTION FOR THIS ADVISORY IS 300/10.  THERE IS LITTLE CHANGE
TO THE SYNOPTIC REASONING FOR THE TRACK FORECAST.  IRENE IS BEING
STEERED BY THE FLOW TO THE SOUTHWEST OF A MID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE.  A
GRADUAL TURN TO THE RIGHT...INTO A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE...IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN IN A COUPLE OF DAYS.  THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE.

FORECASTER PASCH
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      08/0300Z 21.5N  47.7W    35 KT
 12HR VT     08/1200Z 22.2N  49.0W    35 KT
 24HR VT     09/0000Z 22.9N  50.7W    35 KT
 36HR VT     09/1200Z 23.6N  52.4W    35 KT
 48HR VT     10/0000Z 24.5N  54.0W    40 KT
 72HR VT     11/0000Z 27.0N  57.0W    45 KT
 96HR VT     12/0000Z 30.0N  59.0W    50 KT
120HR VT     13/0000Z 33.0N  59.0W    50 KT
 
 
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