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Hurricane EMILY


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HURRICANE EMILY DISCUSSION NUMBER  36
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT TUE JUL 19 2005
 
DOPPLER RADAR...SATELLITE IMAGES...AND REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE
RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT EMILY
IS STILL GETTING BETTER ORGANIZED. THE CENTRAL PRESSURE HAS
DECREASED ABOUT 14 MB IN THE PAST 4 HOURS...BUT THE MAXIMUM
FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS HAVE ONLY INCREASED TO 96 KT ON THE OUTBOUND LEG 
AT 1939Z. HOWEVER...THE RECON WIND DATA ALSO INDICATED A TRIPLE WIND
MAXIMUM IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT AT ABOUT 20...40...AND 50 N MI
FROM THE CENTER. THIS HAS LIKELY SPREAD OUT THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
AND...FORTUNATELY...NOT ALLOWED THE WINDS TO INCREASE TO MAJOR
HURRICANE STRENGTH LIKE THE CENTRAL PRESSURE WOULD TYPICALLY
SUPPORT. UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW CONTINUES TO EXPAND AND IMPROVE IN ALL
QUADRANTS...BUT ESPECIALLY IN THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE.
 
WHEN THE WIGGLES AND WOBBLES ARE SMOOTHED OUT...THE INITIAL MOTION
ESTIMATE IS 290/10. RADAR AND RECON DATA SUGGEST THAT THE
INNER-CORE WIND FIELD AND EYE HAVE PROBABLY STABILIZED NOW. SPECIAL
18Z UPPER-AIR OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE DEEP-LAYER SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE THAT LIES ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. GULF COAST WESTWARD TO
SOUTHEASTERN AND WESTERN TEXAS HAS CHANGED LITTLE DURING THE PAST
24 HOURS.  AS SUCH...A GENERAL 285-290 DEGREES MOTION SHOULD
CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO...AND POSSIBLY EVEN UP UNTIL
LANDFALL OCCURS...WITH A GRADUAL BEND TOWARD THE WEST AFTERWARDS.
EVEN IF EMILY WAS TO MAINTAIN A 295 DEGREE MOTION...THE EYE WOULD
STILL REMAIN AT LEAST 50 N MI SOUTH OF THE TEXAS BORDER. THE GFDL
AND GFS MODELS ARE ALREADY SOUTH OF THE CURRENT POSITION...SO THE
FORECAST TRACK HAS BEEN SHIFTED A TAD NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS
TRACK...AND IS ALSO A LITTLE NORTH OF NHC MODEL CONSENSUS.
 
THE BIG QUESTION IS WHEN WILL EMILY'S WINDS FINALLY ADJUST TO THE
CENTRAL PRESSURE? THE EYE HAS CONTINUED TO CLEAR OUT IN SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND HAS BECOME BETTER DEFINED AND HAS ALSO CONTRACTED AS
SEEN IN THE BROWNSVILLE WSR-88 DOPPLER RADAR DATA. THE TRIPLE WIND
MAXIMUM IS STILL NOTED IN THE RADAR DATA...BUT THE REFLECTIVITY IN
THOSE CONVECTIVE BANDS HAS DECREASED. THIS MAY BE A SIGN THAT THE
OUTER WIND FIELD IS BEGINNING TO WEAKEN...WHICH WOULD ALLOW THE
INNER WIND FIELD TO SPIN UP. GIVEN THE VERY FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL
OUTFLOW PATTERN AND SSTS OF 85F AND WARMER...A PERIOD OF RAPID
INTENSIFICATION IS FORECAST FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO RIGHT UP
UNTIL LANDFALL OCCURS. AFTER LANDFALL...RAPID WEAKENING IS EXPECTED
OVER THE ROUGH AND HIGHER TERRAIN OF NORTHEASTERN MEXICO.
 
IF EMILY FOLLOWS THE FORECAST TRACK...HURRICANE CONDITIONS WOULD
LIKELY REMAIN SOUTH OF THE LOWER TEXAS COAST.  HOWEVER...ANY
DEVIATION TO THE RIGHT COULD BRING HURRICANE CONDITIONS TO FAR
SOUTH TEXAS. EVEN IF EMILY BENDS TO THE WEST AS FORECAST...AN NHC
EXPERIMENTAL PRODUCT SHOWS THERE IS AT LEAST AN 85 PERCENT CHANCE
OF SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM-FORCE WINDS IN THE BROWNSVILLE AREA.
 
FORECASTER STEWART

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      19/2100Z 24.3N  95.6W    85 KT
 12HR VT     20/0600Z 24.6N  97.2W   100 KT
 24HR VT     20/1800Z 24.7N  99.3W    35 KT...DISSIPATING INLAND
 36HR VT     21/0600Z 24.7N 101.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW INLAND
 48HR VT     21/1800Z...DISSIPATED INLAND
 
 
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