Tropical Depression FOURTEEN-E

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TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP142004
0300Z TUE OCT 05 2004
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.1N 113.4W AT 05/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT  13 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  30 KT WITH GUSTS TO  40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.1N 113.4W AT 05/0300Z
AT 05/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.0N 112.8W
 
FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 14.3N 115.2W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE  30SE  30SW  30NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 14.5N 117.0W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE  40SE  40SW  40NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 14.5N 118.8W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE  50SE  50SW  50NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 14.5N 120.7W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE  60SE  60SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 14.5N 124.5W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE  30SW  30NW.
34 KT... 60NE  60SE  60SW  60NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 09/0000Z 14.5N 128.5W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 10/0000Z 14.5N 132.5W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.1N 113.4W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/0900Z
 
FORECASTER BLAKE/LAWRENCE
 
 
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