Hurricane JAVIER

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HURRICANE JAVIER FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  28
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP132004
1500Z FRI SEP 17 2004
 
INTERESTS IN THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA
SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF JAVIER.
 
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.8N 112.3W AT 17/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT   7 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  962 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  95 KT WITH GUSTS TO 115 KT.
64 KT....... 50NE  50SE  50SW  50NW.
50 KT....... 70NE  70SE  70SW  70NW.
34 KT.......100NE 100SE 100SW 100NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 180SE 180SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.8N 112.3W AT 17/1500Z
AT 17/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.5N 112.1W
 
FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 22.8N 113.0W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 50NE  50SE  50SW  50NW.
50 KT... 70NE  70SE  70SW  70NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 100SW 100NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 24.4N 113.9W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
64 KT... 45NE  45SE  45SW  45NW.
50 KT... 60NE  60SE  60SW  60NW.
34 KT... 90NE  90SE  90SW  90NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 26.4N 114.3W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
64 KT... 35NE  35SE  35SW  35NW.
50 KT... 60NE  60SE  60SW  60NW.
34 KT... 90NE  90SE  90SW  90NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 29.5N 114.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE  60SE  60SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 38.0N 112.5W...DISSIPATING
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  25 KT.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 21/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.8N 112.3W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/2100Z
 
FORECASTER BLAKE/FRANKLIN
 
 
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