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Hurricane KARL


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TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
HURRICANE KARL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  19
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL122004
0900Z TUE SEP 21 2004
 
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.1N  47.5W AT 21/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 340 DEGREES AT  10 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  940 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 120 KT WITH GUSTS TO 145 KT.
64 KT....... 60NE  60SE  45SW  60NW.
50 KT....... 90NE  90SE  75SW  90NW.
34 KT.......175NE 175SE 125SW 175NW.
12 FT SEAS..350NE 275SE 275SW 350NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.1N  47.5W AT 21/0900Z
AT 21/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.6N  47.3W
 
FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 21.7N  48.4W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
64 KT... 60NE  60SE  50SW  60NW.
50 KT... 90NE  90SE  75SW  90NW.
34 KT...175NE 175SE 150SW 175NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 23.9N  49.5W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
64 KT... 60NE  60SE  50SW  60NW.
50 KT... 90NE  90SE  75SW  90NW.
34 KT...175NE 175SE 150SW 175NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 26.5N  49.5W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
64 KT... 60NE  60SE  45SW  45NW.
50 KT... 90NE  90SE  75SW  75NW.
34 KT...175NE 175SE 150SW 150NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 29.2N  47.8W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
50 KT... 90NE  90SE  75SW  75NW.
34 KT...175NE 175SE 150SW 150NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 36.0N  43.5W
MAX WIND  95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
50 KT... 90NE  90SE  75SW  75NW.
34 KT...175NE 175SE 150SW 150NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 25/0600Z 44.0N  43.5W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 26/0600Z 48.0N  44.0W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.1N  47.5W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/1500Z
 
FORECASTER PASCH
 
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