Hurricane KARL

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HURRICANE KARL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  13
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL122004
2100Z SUN SEP 19 2004
 
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.0N  44.0W AT 19/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT   9 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  944 MB
EYE DIAMETER  15 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 115 KT WITH GUSTS TO 140 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE  20SE  20SW  20NW.
50 KT....... 50NE  50SE  30SW  30NW.
34 KT.......120NE  90SE  60SW  60NW.
12 FT SEAS..225NE 225SE 225SW 225NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.0N  44.0W AT 19/2100Z
AT 19/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.8N  43.5W
 
FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 17.6N  45.5W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  30SE  30SW  30NW.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE  30SW  30NW.
34 KT...120NE  90SE  60SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 18.5N  47.2W
MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 155 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  30SE  30SW  30NW.
50 KT... 60NE  60SE  60SW  60NW.
34 KT...150NE 120SE  90SW  90NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 19.9N  48.3W
MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 155 KT.
64 KT... 40NE  40SE  40SW  40NW.
50 KT... 75NE  75SE  75SW  75NW.
34 KT...150NE 150SE 150SW 150NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 21.7N  49.1W
MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 155 KT.
50 KT... 75NE  75SE  75SW  75NW.
34 KT...150NE 150SE 150SW 150NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 27.5N  48.5W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
50 KT... 75NE  75SE  75SW  75NW.
34 KT...150NE 150SE 150SW 150NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 23/1800Z 35.0N  45.0W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 24/1800Z 44.0N  40.5W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.0N  44.0W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/0300Z
 
FORECASTER BLAKE/LAWRENCE
 
 
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