Tropical Storm TWELVE

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TROPICAL STORM KARL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL122004
0300Z FRI SEP 17 2004
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.4N  33.9W AT 17/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT  12 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  35 KT WITH GUSTS TO  45 KT.
34 KT....... 30NE   0SE  30SW  30NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE  40SE  40SW 100NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.4N  33.9W AT 17/0300Z
AT 17/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.3N  33.3W
 
FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 11.7N  35.5W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 45NE  45SE  45SW  45NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 12.1N  37.4W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 25NE  25SE  25SW  25NW.
34 KT... 60NE  60SE  60SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 12.5N  39.3W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
64 KT... 15NE  15SE  15SW  15NW.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE  30SW  30NW.
34 KT... 75NE  75SE  75SW  75NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 13.2N  41.1W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE  30SW  30NW.
34 KT... 75NE  75SE  75SW  75NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 15.5N  44.0W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  40SE  40SW  40NW.
34 KT... 90NE  90SE  90SW  90NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 21/0000Z 18.5N  45.5W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 22/0000Z 22.0N  46.5W
MAX WIND  95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.4N  33.9W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/0900Z
 
FORECASTER STEWART
 
 
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