Hurricane JEANNE

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HURRICANE JEANNE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  40
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL112004
1500Z THU SEP 23 2004
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS...
INCLUDING CAT ISLAND...THE EXUMAS...LONG ISLAND...RUM CAY...AND
SAN SALVADOR.  A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WATCH AREA WITHIN 36 HR.
 
A HURRICANE WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED FOR THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS LATER
TODAY.
 
INTERESTS IN THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS...AND ON THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...
SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF JEANNE.
 
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.6N  69.7W AT 23/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  10 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT   4 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  966 MB
EYE DIAMETER  30 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT.
64 KT....... 30NE  30SE  30SW  40NW.
50 KT....... 60NE  60SE  60SW  70NW.
34 KT.......100NE 100SE 100SW 120NW.
12 FT SEAS..540NE 470SE 470SW 600NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.6N  69.7W AT 23/1500Z
AT 23/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 25.6N  69.5W
 
FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 25.6N  70.9W
MAX WIND  90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  30SE  30SW  40NW.
50 KT... 60NE  60SE  60SW  70NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 100SW 120NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 25.6N  72.6W
MAX WIND  95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  30SE  30SW  40NW.
50 KT... 60NE  60SE  60SW  70NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 100SW 120NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 25.7N  74.6W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 40NE  30SE  30SW  40NW.
50 KT... 70NE  60SE  60SW  70NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE 100SW 130NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 26.0N  76.8W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
50 KT... 70NE  60SE  60SW  70NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE 100SW 130NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 27.3N  80.2W...NEAR FLORIDA EAST COAST
MAX WIND  95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
50 KT... 70NE  60SE  60SW  70NW.
34 KT...140NE 110SE 110SW 140NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 27/1200Z 30.5N  81.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 28/1200Z 35.0N  78.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 25.6N  69.7W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/2100Z
 
FORECASTER STEWART
 
 
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