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Hurricane JEANNE


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TROPICAL STORM JEANNE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  23
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL112004
0900Z SUN SEP 19 2004
 
THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS PLANS TO DISCONTINUE ALL WATCHES AND
WARNINGS FOR THE BAHAMAS EFFECTIVE AT 6 AM EDT...1000Z.
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.2N  72.5W AT 19/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 340 DEGREES AT   6 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  40 KT WITH GUSTS TO  50 KT.
34 KT....... 75NE  75SE   0SW   0NW.
12 FT SEAS..125NE 125SE   0SW   0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.2N  72.5W AT 19/0900Z
AT 19/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.8N  72.3W
 
FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 24.1N  72.6W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 75NE  75SE   0SW   0NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 25.5N  72.2W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 25NE  25SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT... 75NE  75SE   0SW   0NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 27.0N  71.7W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 25NE  25SE  25SW  25NW.
34 KT... 75NE  75SE  75SW  75NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 28.0N  70.5W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 25NE  25SE  25SW  25NW.
34 KT... 75NE  75SE  75SW  75NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 27.0N  70.0W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
50 KT... 25NE  25SE  25SW  25NW.
34 KT... 75NE  75SE  75SW  75NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 23/0600Z 26.0N  70.0W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 24/0600Z 26.0N  71.5W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.2N  72.5W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/1500Z
 
FORECASTER PASCH
 
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