Hurricane JEANNE

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TROPICAL STORM JEANNE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  15
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL112004
0900Z FRI SEP 17 2004
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ISLAND OF
HISPANIOLA FROM LE MOLE ST NICHOLAS HAITI EASTWARD TO SANTO
DOMINGO.
 
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN
BAHAMAS...INCLUDING THE ACKLINS...CROOKED ISLAND...THE
INAGUAS...MAYAGUANA...AND THE RAGGED ISLANDS...AS WELL AS FOR THE
TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS.
 
A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS...
INCLUDING CAT ISLAND...THE EXUMAS...LONG ISLAND...RUM CAY...AND SAN
SALVADOR.
 
INTERESTS IN THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
JEANNE.
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.5N  70.1W AT 17/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  15 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT  5 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  992 MB
EYE DIAMETER  15 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  55 KT WITH GUSTS TO  65 KT.
50 KT....... 30NE  30SE  15SW  30NW.
34 KT....... 60NE  60SE  30SW  60NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE  90SE  90SW  90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.5N  70.1W AT 17/0900Z
AT 17/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.4N  69.8W
 
FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 20.0N  70.9W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE  15SW  30NW.
34 KT... 60NE  60SE  30SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 21.3N  72.5W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE  15SW  30NW.
34 KT... 60NE  60SE  30SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 23.0N  74.0W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE  30SW  30NW.
34 KT... 75NE  75SE  60SW  75NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 25.0N  75.0W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE  30SW  30NW.
34 KT... 75NE  75SE  60SW  75NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 27.0N  76.0W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE  50SW  50NW.
34 KT... 90NE  90SE  75SW  90NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 21/0600Z 28.5N  77.0W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 22/0600Z 29.5N  80.0W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.5N  70.1W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/1500Z
 
FORECASTER AVILA
 
 
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