Hurricane IVAN

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HURRICANE IVAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  38...CORRECTED
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL092004
2100Z SAT SEP 11 2004
...CORRECTED FORECAST 50 KT WIND RADII...
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR JAMAICA AND THE CAYMAN
ISLANDS.
 
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR CUBA FROM PINAR DEL RIO TO
CIEGO DE AVILA INCLUDING THE ISLE OF YOUTH. A HURRICANE WARNING
MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING
AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND
PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.
 
A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE REST OF CUBA. A
HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.
 
INTERESTS IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...AS WELL AS IN THE
EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
DANGEROUS HURRICANE IVAN.
 
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.2N  79.3W AT 11/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  10 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT   8 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  914 MB
EYE DIAMETER  20 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 145 KT WITH GUSTS TO 175 KT.
64 KT....... 50NE  30SE  30SW  40NW.
50 KT....... 60NE  60SE  60SW  60NW.
34 KT.......150NE 100SE 100SW 150NW.
12 FT SEAS..360NE 180SE 180SW 200NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.2N  79.3W AT 11/2100Z
AT 11/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.0N  79.0W
 
FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 18.7N  80.5W
MAX WIND 145 KT...GUSTS 175 KT.
64 KT... 60NE  30SE  30SW  40NW.
50 KT... 75NE  60SE  60SW  60NW.
34 KT...150NE 100SE 100SW 150NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 20.0N  82.0W
MAX WIND 145 KT...GUSTS 175 KT.
64 KT... 60NE  30SE  30SW  40NW.
50 KT... 75NE  60SE  60SW  60NW.
34 KT...150NE 100SE 100SW 150NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 21.5N  83.1W...NEARING WESTERN CUBA
MAX WIND 145 KT...GUSTS 175 KT.
64 KT... 60NE  30SE  30SW  40NW.
50 KT... 75NE  60SE  60SW  60NW.
34 KT...150NE 100SE 100SW 150NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 23.1N  84.0W
MAX WIND 130 KT...GUSTS 160 KT.
50 KT... 75NE  60SE  60SW  60NW.
34 KT...150NE 100SE 100SW 150NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 26.5N  85.0W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
50 KT... 75NE  60SE  60SW  60NW.
34 KT...150NE 100SE 100SW 150NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 15/1800Z 31.0N  85.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 16/1800Z 36.0N  83.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.2N  79.3W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 12/0300Z
 
FORECASTER AVILA
 
 
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