Hurricane IVAN

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HURRICANE IVAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  35
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL092004
0300Z SAT SEP 11 2004
 
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR JAMAICA AND THE CAYMAN
ISLANDS.
 
A HURRICANE WATCH AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
THE ENTIRE SOUTHWEST PENINSULA OF HAITI FROM THE BORDER OF THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC WESTWARD...INCLUDING PORT AU PRINCE.  THIS
WARNING WILL LIKELY BE DISCONTINUED LATER TONIGHT.
 
A HURRICANE WATCH IS EFFECT FOR CUBA INCLUDING THE ISLE OF YOUTH...
AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTH COAST
OF EASTERN CUBA FROM CABO CRUZ TO SANTIAGO DE CUBA.  HURRICANE
WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN CUBA ON
SATURDAY...AND TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS
OF CENTRAL CUBA.
 
INTERESTS IN CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...AS WELL AS SOUTHERN
FLORIDA...SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF DANGEROUS
HURRICANE IVAN.
 
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.5N  76.9W AT 11/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  10 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT   9 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  920 MB
EYE DIAMETER  10 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 135 KT WITH GUSTS TO 165 KT.
64 KT....... 50NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.
50 KT....... 75NE  50SE  50SW  75NW.
34 KT.......150NE  90SE  90SW 150NW.
12 FT SEAS..360NE 180SE 180SW 200NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.5N  76.9W AT 11/0300Z
AT 11/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.3N  76.5W
 
FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 18.3N  77.9W...OVER JAMAICA
MAX WIND 135 KT...GUSTS 165 KT.
64 KT... 50NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.
50 KT... 75NE  50SE  50SW  75NW.
34 KT...150NE  90SE  90SW 150NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 19.3N  79.1W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND 140 KT...GUSTS 170 KT.
64 KT... 50NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.
50 KT... 75NE  50SE  50SW  75NW.
34 KT...150NE  90SE  90SW 150NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 20.4N  80.4W
MAX WIND 140 KT...GUSTS 170 KT.
64 KT... 50NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.
50 KT... 75NE  50SE  50SW  75NW.
34 KT...150NE  90SE  90SW 150NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 21.8N  81.5W
MAX WIND 140 KT...GUSTS 170 KT.
50 KT... 75NE  50SE  50SW  75NW.
34 KT...150NE  90SE  90SW 150NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 25.0N  83.0W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
50 KT... 75NE  50SE  50SW  75NW.
34 KT...175NE  90SE  90SW 150NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 15/0000Z 30.0N  83.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 16/0000Z 35.5N  83.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.5N  76.9W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 11/0900Z
 
FORECASTER BEVEN
 
 
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