Hurricane IVAN

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HURRICANE IVAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  31
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL092004
0300Z FRI SEP 10 2004
 
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR JAMAICA AND THE CAYMAN
ISLANDS.
 
A HURRICANE WATCH AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
THE ENTIRE SOUTHWEST PENINSULA OF HAITI FROM THE BORDER OF THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC WESTWARD...INCLUDING PORT AU PRINCE.
 
A HURRICANE WATCH AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM BARAHONA TO PERDENALES.  A TROPICAL STORM
WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC FROM PALENQUE WESTWARD TO BARAHONA.
 
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR CENTRAL AND EASTERN CUBA FROM
MATANZAS EASTWARD.  TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED FOR
PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN CUBA FRIDAY MORNING.
 
INTERESTS IN CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA SHOULD CLOSELY
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF DANGEROUS HURRICANE IVAN.
 
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.5N  73.3W AT 10/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  10 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT  11 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  923 MB
EYE DIAMETER  10 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 130 KT WITH GUSTS TO 160 KT.
64 KT....... 45NE  35SE  30SW  45NW.
50 KT.......125NE  60SE  60SW  60NW.
34 KT.......150NE  90SE  90SW 150NW.
12 FT SEAS..360NE 140SE 140SW 200NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.5N  73.3W AT 10/0300Z
AT 10/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.2N  72.8W
 
FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 16.5N  74.8W
MAX WIND 130 KT...GUSTS 160 KT.
64 KT... 45NE  35SE  35SW  45NW.
50 KT...100NE  60SE  60SW  60NW.
34 KT...150NE  90SE  90SW 150NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 17.7N  76.6W
MAX WIND 135 KT...GUSTS 165 KT.
64 KT... 45NE  35SE  35SW  45NW.
50 KT... 80NE  60SE  60SW  60NW.
34 KT...150NE  90SE  90SW 150NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 18.9N  78.3W
MAX WIND 130 KT...GUSTS 160 KT.
64 KT... 45NE  35SE  35SW  45NW.
50 KT... 80NE  60SE  60SW  60NW.
34 KT...150NE  90SE  90SW 150NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 19.9N  79.6W
MAX WIND 140 KT...GUSTS 170 KT.
50 KT... 80NE  60SE  60SW  60NW.
34 KT...150NE  90SE  90SW 150NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 22.0N  81.5W
MAX WIND 140 KT...GUSTS 170 KT.
50 KT... 80NE  60SE  60SW  60NW.
34 KT...150NE  90SE  90SW 150NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 14/0000Z 25.5N  82.5W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 15/0000Z 29.5N  83.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND  95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.5N  73.3W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/0900Z
 
FORECASTER BEVEN
 
 
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