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Hurricane IVAN


ZCZC MIATCMAT4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
HURRICANE IVAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  12
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL092004
1500Z SUN SEP 05 2004
 
INTERESTS IN THE LESSER ANTILLES SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
IVAN.
 
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR  9.9N  46.0W AT 05/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT  18 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  980 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  75 KT WITH GUSTS TO  90 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE  20SE  20SW  20NW.
50 KT....... 40NE  40SE  40SW  40NW.
34 KT.......110NE 110SE  70SW  90NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 120SE 120SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR  9.9N  46.0W AT 05/1500Z
AT 05/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR  9.8N  45.1W
 
FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 10.6N  48.7W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  20SE  20SW  20NW.
50 KT... 40NE  40SE  40SW  40NW.
34 KT...110NE 110SE  70SW  90NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 11.5N  52.3W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  30SE  30SW  30NW.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE  50SW  50NW.
34 KT...110NE 110SE 110SW 110NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 12.4N  55.9W
MAX WIND  90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  30SE  30SW  30NW.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE  50SW  50NW.
34 KT...110NE 110SE 110SW 110NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 13.3N  59.4W
MAX WIND  95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE  50SW  50NW.
34 KT...110NE 110SE 110SW 110NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 15.0N  65.5W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
50 KT... 60NE  60SE  60SW  60NW.
34 KT...110NE 110SE 110SW 110NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 09/1200Z 17.5N  71.0W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 10/1200Z 20.5N  75.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF  9.9N  46.0W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/2100Z
 
FORECASTER PASCH
  
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