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Tropical Storm IVAN


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TROPICAL STORM IVAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL092004
1500Z FRI SEP 03 2004
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR  9.6N  32.9W AT 03/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  45 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 260 DEGREES AT  16 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  40 KT WITH GUSTS TO  50 KT.
34 KT....... 50NE   0SE   0SW  50NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 50NE  50SE  50SW  50NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR  9.6N  32.9W AT 03/1500Z
AT 03/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR  9.6N  32.0W
 
FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z  9.7N  35.5W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 25NE   0SE   0SW  25NW.
34 KT... 50NE   0SE   0SW  50NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 10.0N  38.7W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE   0SE   0SW  30NW.
34 KT... 60NE  30SE  30SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 10.3N  42.0W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE   0SE   0SW  30NW.
34 KT... 60NE  30SE  30SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 10.5N  45.0W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
50 KT... 30NE   0SE   0SW  30NW.
34 KT... 75NE  40SE  40SW  75NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 11.5N  51.0W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  30SE  30SW  50NW.
34 KT... 90NE  60SE  60SW  90NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 07/1200Z 13.0N  57.0W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 08/1200Z 14.5N  63.0W
MAX WIND  90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF  9.6N  32.9W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/2100Z
 
FORECASTER PASCH
 
 
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