Hurricane FRANCES

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TROPICAL STORM FRANCES FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  48
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL062004
2100Z SUN SEP 05 2004
 
AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...THE HURRICANE WARNING HAS BEEN EXTENDED
SOUTHWARD FROM THE MOUTH OF THE SUWANNEE RIVER TO ANNA MARIA
ISLAND. A HURRICANE WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE GULF COAST OF
FLORIDA FROM ANNA MARIA ISLAND TO DESTIN.
 
AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...THE HURRICANE WARNING HAS BEEN DOWNGRADED TO A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA FROM NORTH OF
JUPITER INLET NORTHWARD TO FLAGLER BEACH...INCLUDING LAKE
OKEECHOBEE.
 
AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...ALL WARNINGS FROM JUPITER INLET SOUTHWARD TO
FLORIDA CITY HAVE BEEN DISCONTINUED.  A TROPICAL STORM WARNING
REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...ON THE WEST
COAST...FROM SOUTH OF ANNA MARIA ISLAND SOUTHWARD AROUND THE
PENINSULA TO OCEAN REEF...AND FOR ALL OF THE FLORIDA KEYS...
INCLUDING FLORIDA BAY AND THE DRY TORTUGAS. A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NORTH OF FLAGLER BEACH TO
ALTAMAHA SOUND.
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.0N  82.2W AT 05/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT   9 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  975 MB
EYE DIAMETER  30 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  60 KT WITH GUSTS TO  75 KT.
50 KT....... 25NE  25SE  25SW  25NW.
34 KT.......175NE 120SE 200SW 125NW.
12 FT SEAS..300NE 200SE 200SW 200NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.0N  82.2W AT 05/2100Z
AT 05/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 27.8N  81.7W
 
FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 28.5N  83.5W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
64 KT... 25NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
50 KT... 40NE  40SE  40SW  40NW.
34 KT...125NE 125SE 125SW 125NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 29.7N  85.0W...MOVING INLAND
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
64 KT... 25NE  25SE  25SW  25NW.
50 KT... 40NE  40SE  40SW  40NW.
34 KT...125NE 125SE 125SW 125NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 31.5N  86.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 32.5N  86.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 36.0N  85.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 09/1800Z 39.5N  81.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND  10 KT...GUSTS  15 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 10/1800Z...ABSORBED BY A FRONT
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 28.0N  82.2W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/0300Z
 
FORECASTER AVILA
 
 
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