Hurricane FRANCES

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HURRICANE FRANCES FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  40
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL062004
2100Z FRI SEP 03 2004
 
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA
FROM FLORIDA CITY NORTHWARD TO FLAGLER BEACH...INCLUDING LAKE
OKEECHOBEE.  A HURRICANE WARNING ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE
NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS.
 
A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  PREPARATIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.
 
AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM
NORTH OF FLAGLER BEACH NORTHWARD TO FERNANDINA BEACH. A HURRICANE
WATCH AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM NORTH OF
FLAGLER BEACH NORTHWARD TO FERNANDINA BEACH.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE MIDDLE AND UPPER
FLORIDA KEYS FROM SOUTH OF FLORIDA CITY SOUTHWARD TO THE SEVEN MILE
BRIDGE...INCLUDING FLORIDA BAY.
 
AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...THE HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS
HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED.
 
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.9N  77.5W AT 03/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT   7 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  959 MB
EYE DIAMETER  25 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 100 KT WITH GUSTS TO 120 KT.
64 KT....... 75NE  40SE  40SW  75NW.
50 KT.......120NE 100SE  70SW 100NW.
34 KT.......160NE 125SE 110SW 140NW.
12 FT SEAS..350NE 180SE 180SW 350NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.9N  77.5W AT 03/2100Z
AT 03/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 25.7N  77.2W
 
FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 26.5N  78.4W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 75NE  40SE  40SW  75NW.
50 KT...145NE 100SE  70SW 100NW.
34 KT...175NE 125SE 110SW 140NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 27.4N  80.0W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 75NE  40SE  40SW  75NW.
50 KT...120NE 100SE  70SW 100NW.
34 KT...160NE 125SE 110SW 140NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 28.0N  81.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  20SE  20SW  20NW.
50 KT...120NE  90SE  30SW  30NW.
34 KT...160NE 125SE  50SW  50NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 28.5N  82.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT...  0NE   0SE  50SW  50NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 31.1N  85.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 07/1800Z 35.1N  87.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  25 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 08/1800Z 40.0N  85.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  25 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 25.9N  77.5W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/0300Z
 
FORECASTER AVILA
 
 
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