Hurricane FRANCES

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HURRICANE FRANCES FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  36
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL062004
2100Z THU SEP 02 2004
 
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA
FROM FLORIDA CITY NORTHWARD TO FLAGLER BEACH...INCLUDING LAKE
OKEECHOBEE.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE
MIDDLE AND UPPER FLORIDA KEYS FROM SOUTH OF FLORIDA CITY TO THE
SEVEN MILE BRIDGE INCLUDING FLORIDA BAY.
 
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ALL THE BAHAMAS.
 
A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  PREPARATIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.
 
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.1N  74.8W AT 02/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  15 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT   9 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  948 MB
EYE DIAMETER  25 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 120 KT WITH GUSTS TO 145 KT.
64 KT....... 70NE  50SE  30SW  60NW.
50 KT.......120NE  90SE  70SW  90NW.
34 KT.......160NE 130SE  90SW 120NW.
12 FT SEAS..350NE 160SE 160SW 350NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.1N  74.8W AT 02/2100Z
AT 02/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.8N  74.3W
 
FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 24.9N  76.2W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
64 KT... 70NE  50SE  30SW  60NW.
50 KT...120NE  90SE  70SW  90NW.
34 KT...160NE 130SE  90SW 120NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 26.0N  77.8W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
64 KT... 70NE  50SE  30SW  60NW.
50 KT...120NE  90SE  70SW  90NW.
34 KT...160NE 130SE  90SW 130NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 27.0N  79.5W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 70NE  50SE  30SW  60NW.
50 KT...120NE  90SE  70SW  90NW.
34 KT...160NE 130SE  90SW 120NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 27.7N  80.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND  90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
50 KT...120NE  90SE  50SW  50NW.
34 KT...160NE 130SE  75SW  75NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 28.5N  83.0W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 75NE  75SE  75SW  75NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 06/1800Z 31.0N  85.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 07/1800Z 34.5N  87.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 24.1N  74.8W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/0300Z
 
FORECASTER AVILA
 
 
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