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Tropical Storm EARL


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TROPICAL STORM EARL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL052004
0300Z SUN AUG 15 2004
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR BARBADOS...ST.
VINCENT...THE GRENADINES...TRINIDAD...TOBAGO...GRENADA AND ITS
DEPENDENCIES...AND ST. LUCIA.  INTERESTS AROUND THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF EARL.
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.3N  56.8W AT 15/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  45 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 287 DEGREES AT  21 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  35 KT WITH GUSTS TO  45 KT.
34 KT....... 75NE   0SE   0SW  75NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 75NE   0SE   0SW  75NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.3N  56.8W AT 15/0300Z
AT 15/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.0N  55.8W
 
FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 12.3N  59.7W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 75NE   0SE   0SW  75NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 13.6N  63.5W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 25NE   0SE   0SW  25NW.
34 KT... 75NE  25SE  25SW  75NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 14.8N  67.2W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE  30SW  30NW.
34 KT... 75NE  50SE  50SW  75NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 15.8N  70.7W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE  30SW  30NW.
34 KT... 75NE  50SE  50SW  75NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 17.7N  76.6W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE  30SW  30NW.
34 KT... 75NE  50SE  50SW  75NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 19/0000Z 19.3N  81.3W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 20/0000Z 21.1N  85.1W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.3N  56.8W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/0900Z
 
FORECASTER JARVINEN
 
 
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