Hurricane JAVIER

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TROPICAL STORM JAVIER DISCUSSION NUMBER  32
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 AM PDT SAT SEP 18 2004
 
JAVIER IS WEAKENING RATHER QUICKLY THIS MORNING AS ALL DEEP
CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER HAS DISSIPATED.  WATER VAPOR IMAGES
SHOW SOUTHERLY WINDS NEAR THE CYCLONE WITH PLENTY OF MIDDLE TO
UPPER-LEVEL DRY AIR...LIKELY ACCELERATING THE WEAKENING PROCESS.
SATELLITE ESTIMATES FROM ALL AGENCIES ARE DECREASING QUICKLY AND
THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET TO 50 KT... A BLEND OF THE T/CI
NUMBERS FROM TAFB.
 
A RECENT TRMM PASS AT 1200Z SUGGEST THAT THE INITIAL POSITION HAS
BEEN A LITTLE WEST OF OUR PREVIOUS ESTIMATES.  THE NEW MOTION
ESTIMATE IS 330/7.  THE FORECAST TRACK IS SHIFTED A BIT FARTHER
WEST IN ACCORDANCE WITH RECENT MOVEMENT AND IS JUST WEST OF THE
GLOBAL CONSENSUS.  THE GFS MODEL IS A BIT OF AN OUTLIER AS IT
DELAYS LANDFALL UNTIL TOMORROW AFTERNOON.  IF THE GFS IS CORRECT
JAVIER MIGHT NOT BE A TROPICAL STORM WHEN IT REACHES WEST-CENTRAL
BAJA CALIFORNIA.
 
STEADY WEAKENING IS LIKELY FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS DUE TO INCREASING
SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR...DRY MID-LEVEL AIR...AND DECREASING 
WATER TEMPERATURES.  AFTERWARD INTERACTIONS WITH LAND WILL BRING
UPON A MORE RAPID WEAKENING. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...JAVIER WILL
LIKELY BRING HEAVY RAIN TO THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES AS EARLY
AS SUNDAY.
 
FORECASTER BLAKE/LAWRENCE
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      18/1500Z 23.7N 113.4W    50 KT
 12HR VT     19/0000Z 25.1N 113.7W    45 KT
 24HR VT     19/1200Z 28.1N 113.5W    30 KT...INLAND
 36HR VT     20/0000Z 31.5N 112.8W    25 KT...INLAND AND DISSIPATING
 48HR VT     20/1200Z 35.0N 111.5W    20 KT...INLAND AND DISSIPATING
 72HR VT     21/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
 
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