ZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM JAVIER DISCUSSION NUMBER 32 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 8 AM PDT SAT SEP 18 2004 JAVIER IS WEAKENING RATHER QUICKLY THIS MORNING AS ALL DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER HAS DISSIPATED. WATER VAPOR IMAGES SHOW SOUTHERLY WINDS NEAR THE CYCLONE WITH PLENTY OF MIDDLE TO UPPER-LEVEL DRY AIR...LIKELY ACCELERATING THE WEAKENING PROCESS. SATELLITE ESTIMATES FROM ALL AGENCIES ARE DECREASING QUICKLY AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET TO 50 KT... A BLEND OF THE T/CI NUMBERS FROM TAFB. A RECENT TRMM PASS AT 1200Z SUGGEST THAT THE INITIAL POSITION HAS BEEN A LITTLE WEST OF OUR PREVIOUS ESTIMATES. THE NEW MOTION ESTIMATE IS 330/7. THE FORECAST TRACK IS SHIFTED A BIT FARTHER WEST IN ACCORDANCE WITH RECENT MOVEMENT AND IS JUST WEST OF THE GLOBAL CONSENSUS. THE GFS MODEL IS A BIT OF AN OUTLIER AS IT DELAYS LANDFALL UNTIL TOMORROW AFTERNOON. IF THE GFS IS CORRECT JAVIER MIGHT NOT BE A TROPICAL STORM WHEN IT REACHES WEST-CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA. STEADY WEAKENING IS LIKELY FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS DUE TO INCREASING SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR...DRY MID-LEVEL AIR...AND DECREASING WATER TEMPERATURES. AFTERWARD INTERACTIONS WITH LAND WILL BRING UPON A MORE RAPID WEAKENING. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...JAVIER WILL LIKELY BRING HEAVY RAIN TO THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES AS EARLY AS SUNDAY. FORECASTER BLAKE/LAWRENCE FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 18/1500Z 23.7N 113.4W 50 KT 12HR VT 19/0000Z 25.1N 113.7W 45 KT 24HR VT 19/1200Z 28.1N 113.5W 30 KT...INLAND 36HR VT 20/0000Z 31.5N 112.8W 25 KT...INLAND AND DISSIPATING 48HR VT 20/1200Z 35.0N 111.5W 20 KT...INLAND AND DISSIPATING 72HR VT 21/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ NNNN
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Page last modified: Saturday, 18-Sep-2004 14:34:48 UTC