Hurricane JAVIER

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HURRICANE JAVIER DISCUSSION NUMBER  17
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 PM PDT TUE SEP 14 2004
 
A TRMM OVERPASS AT 1411Z SUGGEST THAT JAVIER HAS COMPLETED ITS
CONCENTRIC EYEWALL CYCLE...AND THE EYE HAS BECOME BETTER DEFINED ON
RECENT VISIBLE AND INFRARED IMAGERY.  SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES
REMAIN 140 KT FROM AFWA AND 127 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB.  BASED ON THE
MORE DITINCT EYE...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 130 KT. 
CIRRUS OUTFLOW IS GOOD TO EXCELLENT IN ALL DIRECTIONS...EXCEPT TO
THE EAST WHERE IT IS POOR.
 
JAVIER HAS TURNED A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT TODAY AND THE INITIAL MOTION
IS NOW 325/5.  OTHER THAN THAT...THERE IS LITTLE CHANGE IN THE
TRACK FORECAST PHILOSOPHY.  LARGE-SCALE MODELS ANALYZE A WEAK
MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER NORTHERN MEXICO AND FORECAST THIS TO
STRENGTHEN WITH TIME AS A TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES
MOVES EASTWARD AND IS REPLACED BY A SECOND TROUGH OFF THE U. S.
WEST COAST.  THIS SHOULD ALLOW JAVIER TO CONTINUE ON A SLOW TRACK
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST THROUGH AT LEAST 96 HR.  MOST GUIDANCE AGREES
ON THIS SCENARIO...EXCEPT FOR THE GFS WHICH HAS A MUCH STRONGER
RIDGE THAN THE OTHER MODELS AND TURNS JAVIER MORE TOWARD THE WEST.
THAT SOLUTION IS DISCOUNTED FOR THE MOMENT...WITH THE FORECAST
TRACK BEING DOWN THE MIDDLE OF THE ENVELOPE OF THE REMAINDER OF THE
DYNAMICAL MODELS.  AFTER 96 HR...JAVIER MAY TURN MORE NORTHWARD IN
RESPONSE TO THE SECOND TROUGH...AND THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE 120 HR
POSITION.  NOTE THAT WHILE FORECAST TRACK KEEPS JAVIER WEST OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA...ANY FURTHER MOTION TO THE RIGHT COULD BRING THE CENTER
MUCH CLOSER TO THE PENINSULA.
 
THERE ARE NO OBVIOUS LARGE-SCALE FACTORS TO KEEP JAVIER FROM
RE-INTENSIFYING NOW THAT THE CONCENTRIC EYEWALL CYCLE IS OVER...AND
THUS THE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR JAVIER TO STRENGTHEN TO 135
KT IN 24 HR.  THERE MAY BE FLUCUATIONS IN INTENSITY AS SUBSEQUENT
CONCENTRIC EYEWALL CYCLES OCCUR.  AT ABOUT 72 HR...JAVIER WILL MOVE
OVER GRADUALLY COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES...WHICH SHOULD CAUSE
WEAKENING.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS
PACKAGE...AND IS MUCH STRONGER THAN EITHER SHIPS OF THE GFDL.
 
FORECASTER BEVEN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      14/2100Z 17.2N 107.8W   125 KT
 12HR VT     15/0600Z 17.7N 108.1W   130 KT
 24HR VT     15/1800Z 18.5N 108.8W   135 KT
 36HR VT     16/0600Z 19.2N 109.5W   130 KT
 48HR VT     16/1800Z 20.0N 110.5W   125 KT
 72HR VT     17/1800Z 21.5N 112.5W   115 KT
 96HR VT     18/1800Z 23.0N 114.5W    85 KT
120HR VT     19/1800Z 26.0N 116.5W    50 KT
 
 
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