Tropical Depression NINE-E

ZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 AM PDT TUE AUG 24 2004
 
THE TROPICAL DEPRESSION IS POORLY ORGANIZED WITH THE LOW-LEVEL
CENTER TO THE SOUTH OF THE CONVECTION AS INDICATED BY MICROWAVE
DATA AND CONVENTIONAL IR IMAGES. THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS AT
25 KNOTS. BECAUSE THE DEPRESSION IS IN NEAR MARGINALLY WARM WATERS
AND THE SHEAR IS NOT VERY FAVORABLE....ONLY SOME STRENGTHENING IS
INDICATED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THEREAFTER...WEAKENING SHOULD
BEGIN AS THE CYCLONE MOVES OVER INCREASINGLY COOLER WATERS.

THE DEPRESSION IS EMBEDDED WITHIN WEAK STEERING CURRENTS. THE BEST
ESTIMATE OF THE INITIAL MOTION IS 320 DEGREES AT 4 KNOTS. A RIDGE
IS FORECAST TO BUILD NORTH OF THE DEPRESSION AND THIS PATTERN
SHOULD STEER THE CYCLONE WESTWARD OR EVEN SOUTH OF DUE WEST AS
SUGGESTED BY SOME OF THE GLOBAL MODELS. THIS IS PROBABLY CAUSED BY
THE NORTHERLY FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE WESTERN CIRCULATION OF
STRONGER TROPICAL CYCLONE FRANK.    

FORECASTER AVILA
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      24/0900Z 18.8N 124.5W    25 KT
 12HR VT     24/1800Z 19.0N 124.5W    30 KT
 24HR VT     25/0600Z 19.5N 125.5W    35 KT
 36HR VT     25/1800Z 19.5N 126.5W    35 KT
 48HR VT     26/0600Z 19.5N 127.5W    35 KT
 72HR VT     27/0600Z 19.5N 131.5W    30 KT
 96HR VT     28/0600Z 19.5N 134.0W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT     29/0600Z 19.5N 137.5W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
 
 
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