Tropical Depression SIX-E
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TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 AM PDT MON AUG 02 2004
SATELLITE IMAGES SUGGEST LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE IN THE ORGANIZATION
OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. DVORAK
CLASSIFICATIONS AND QUIKSCAT DATA SUGGEST THAT THE SYSTEM IS CLOSE
TO TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH...BUT I WOULD LIKE TO SEE AN IMPROVED
BANDING STRUCTURE BEFORE UPGRADING IT. SLOW STRENGTHENING IS
FORECAST TO OCCUR OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS SINCE THE CYCLONE IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN A LOW SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. LATER IN THE
FORECAST PERIOD...GRADUAL WEAKENING IS LIKELY DUE TO COOLER WATERS
AND INCREASING WESTERLY SHEAR.
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING GENERALLY WESTWARD TO THE SOUTH OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST FOR THIS ADVISORY
IS SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE...AND IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH THE LATEST GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE.
FORECASTER PASCH
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 02/0900Z 12.4N 129.0W 30 KT
12HR VT 02/1800Z 12.8N 130.4W 35 KT
24HR VT 03/0600Z 13.5N 132.2W 40 KT
36HR VT 03/1800Z 14.4N 134.0W 45 KT
48HR VT 04/0600Z 15.3N 135.8W 55 KT
72HR VT 05/0600Z 16.5N 140.0W 55 KT
96HR VT 06/0600Z 17.0N 144.0W 45 KT
120HR VT 07/0600Z 17.0N 148.0W 35 KT
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