Hurricane DARBY

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HURRICANE DARBY DISCUSSION NUMBER  13
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 PM PDT THU JUL 29 2004
 
THE EYE IS NOT LONGER CLEARLY DEPICTED ON VISIBLE IMAGES INDICATING
THAT DARBY HAS BEEN WEAKENING. DVORAK ESTIMATES SUGGEST THAT WINDS
HAVE DECREASED TO 90 KNOTS. COOL WATERS AND STRONG SHEAR SHOULD
AFFECT THE HURRICANE CAUSING SIGNIFICANT WEAKENING.  THIS IS
SUPPORTED BY BOTH SHIPS AND GFDL MODELS.
 
DARBY IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST ABOUT 11 KNOTS AROUND THE
PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THERE HAS BEEN NO CHANGE IS
GUIDANCE WHICH CONTINUES TO SHOW A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK
DURING THE NEXT 3 DAYS. THEREAFTER...SOME MODELS CARRY DARBY
WESTWARD AND OTHERS NORTHWESTWARD. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR
A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK WITH A GRADUAL TURN TO THE WEST WHEN
DARBY BECOMES A SHALLOW CYCLONE IN 72 HOURS.
 
FORECASTER AVILA
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      29/2100Z 17.9N 128.8W    90 KT
 12HR VT     30/0600Z 18.5N 130.5W    85 KT
 24HR VT     30/1800Z 19.0N 133.0W    60 KT
 36HR VT     31/0600Z 19.5N 135.3W    50 KT
 48HR VT     31/1800Z 20.0N 137.5W    40 KT
 72HR VT     01/1800Z 20.0N 142.5W    30 KT...DISSIPATING
 96HR VT     02/1800Z 20.5N 147.5W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT     03/1800Z 20.5N 153.0W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
 
 
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