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Hurricane CELIA


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TROPICAL DEPRESSION CELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  26
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 PM PDT SAT JUL 24 2004
 
ANOTHER CONVECTIVE BURST HAS DEVELOPED JUST NORTHWEST OF THE CENTER
OF CELIA.  OTHERWISE...CELIA REMAINS A SWIRL OF LOW/MID LEVEL
CLOUDS...WITH STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS SUGGESTING STABLE AIR WRAPPED
INTO THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT OF THE CYCLONE.  SATELLITE INTENSITY
ESTIMATES ARE 30 KT FROM ALL AGENCIES...AND THAT REMAINS THE
INITIAL INTENSITY.
 
CELIA HAS MOVED A LITTLE MORE TO THE RIGHT AND A LITTLE FASTER OVER
THE PAST 6 HR...WITH THE INITIAL MOTION NOW 285/11.  THE CYCLONE
SHOULD CONTINUE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE FOR THE NEXT 12-24 HR...THEN TURN WESTWARD AS THE
LOW LEVEL RIDGE BECOME THE DOMINANT STEERING MECHANISM.  THE NEW
FORECAST TRACK IS JUST A LITTLE NORTH AND FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS
TRACK...IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE GFS AND GUNS.

THE CURRENT BURST MAY BE THE LAST GASP FOR CELIA.  THE CYCLONE IS
NOW MOVING OFF THE NORTHWARD BULGE OF WARMER WATER NOTED LAST
NIGHT...AND IN 12-24 HR IT SHOULD BE OVER 24C OR COLDER WATER. 
THIS SHOULD CAUSE WEAKENING AND EVENTUAL DISSIPATION AS SHOWN IN
THE INTENSITY FORECAST.
 
FORECASTER BEVEN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      25/0300Z 17.7N 131.2W    30 KT
 12HR VT     25/1200Z 18.1N 132.9W    25 KT
 24HR VT     26/0000Z 18.3N 135.1W    25 KT...DISSIPATING
 36HR VT     26/1200Z 18.3N 137.4W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 48HR VT     27/0000Z 18.3N 139.7W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 72HR VT     28/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
 
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