Hurricane CELIA

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TROPICAL STORM CELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  20
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 AM PDT FRI JUL 23 2004
 
WHILE THE OVERALL DEEP CONVECTIVE PATTERN HAS DECREASED
SIGNIFICANTLY FROM EARLIER THIS MORNING...A FEW BANDS OF MODERATE
CONVECTION HAVE REDEVELOPED IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT. ALSO...
23/0927Z TRMM AND 23/1011Z AQUA MICROWAVE OVERPASSES INDICATE A
TIGHTLY WOUND LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS A LITTLE FARTHER
SOUTH THAN CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE FIXES AND THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
TRACK HAVE BEEN INDICATING. AS SUCH...THE INITIAL POSITION HAS BEEN
ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY SOUTHWARD. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS MAINTAINED AT
35 KT BASED ON A CONSENSUS T2.5...OR 35 KT...CURRENT SATELLITE
INTENSITY ESTIMATE FROM ALL THREE AGENCIES AND THE TIGHT INNER
STRUCTURE NOTED IN THE TWO RECENT MICROWAVE OVERPASSES.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION IS 270/07. THE TREND IN THE MICROWAVE POSITIONS
OVER THE PAST 9 HOURS WOULD SUGGEST THAT CELIA HAS SLOWED DOWN TO
AROUND 5-6 KT. HOWEVER...THIS MAY BE A TEMPORARY MOTION DUE TO THE
LOSS OF DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER. WHILE THE TRACK OVER THE
PAST 36 HOURS HAS REMAINED ON THE EXTREME SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE NHC
MODEL GUIDANCE...THE MAJORITY OF THE MODELS CONTINUE TO MOVE CELIA
WEST-NORTHWEST OR NORTHWESTWARD INTO THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE THAT
LIES TO THE NORTH. THIS SEEMS UNLIKELY GIVEN THE CURRENT WEAKENING
VERTICAL STRUCTURE. CELIA IS EXPECTED TO BE FORCED MAINLY WESTWARD
BY THE MODERATE EASTERLY TRADEWIND FLOW. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
TRACK IS ONLY SLIGHTLY SOUTH OR LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND
IS CLOSE TO GFS AND GFDN SOLUTIONS.

THERE MAY BE A FEW SPOTS OF 35 KT WINDS IN THE BAND TO THE
NORTHEAST...BUT WITH COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS NOW BEING DRAWN
INTO THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER AS SEEN IN NIGHTIME VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY...A FASTER WEAKENING TREND SHOULD BEGIN. THE UPPER-LEVEL
ENVIRONMENT IS FORECAST TO REMAIN RATHER FAVORABLE WITH VERTICAL
SHEAR LESS THAN 5 KT FOR THE NEXT 72 HOURS AND THE SHIPS INTENSITY
MODEL MAINTAINS THE INTENSITY BETWEEN 35-40 KT THROUGH 120 HOURS.
HOWEVER...GIVEN THE SUB-25C SST WATER THAT THE CYCLONE WILL BE
PASSING OVER AFTER 24 HOURS...NO SIGNIFICANT REDEVELOPMENT AND
ORGANIZATION OF DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER IS EXPECTED.
 
FORECASTER STEWART
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      23/1500Z 16.1N 125.5W    35 KT
 12HR VT     24/0000Z 16.1N 127.1W    30 KT
 24HR VT     24/1200Z 16.2N 129.0W    25 KT...DISSIPATING
 36HR VT     25/0000Z 16.2N 130.9W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
 48HR VT     25/1200Z 16.3N 132.6W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 72HR VT     26/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
 
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