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Tropical Storm CELIA


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TROPICAL STORM CELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  12
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 PM PDT WED JUL 21 2004
 
18Z DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB WERE 65 KT...WITH
55 KT FROM AFWA.  SINCE THAT TIME...HOWEVER...THE CONVECTIVE
PATTERN HAS BECOME A LITTLE RAGGED.  THE LATEST QUIKSCAT PASS AT
1340Z INDICATED THAT CELIA'S PEAK WINDS WERE AT LEAST 50 KT AT THAT
TIME.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 60 KT FOR THIS
ADVISORY.  THE EARLIER OUTFLOW RESTRICTION IN THE NORTHEAST
QUADRANT SEEMS TO HAVE DISSIPATED.  CELIA COULD REACH HURRICANE
STRENGTH DURING THE NEXT 6-12 HOURS...BUT THE OPPORTUNITY FOR
FURTHER STRENGTHENING IS RUNNING OUT AS SSTS UNDER THE CYCLONE ARE
BEGINNING TO DECREASE.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR A GRADUAL
DECAY BEGINNING IN ABOUT 12 HOURS.

OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS THE MOTION HAS BEEN DUE WEST...BUT A
LONGER-TERM ESTIMATE IS 280/6.  THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN
THE FORECAST THINKING.  CELIA REMAINS SOUTH OF A WEAKNESS IN THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IN THE VICINITY OF 125W LONGITUDE. SOME INCREASE
IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS CELIA MOVES
PAST THIS WEAKNESS WHILE IT WEAKENS AND BEGINS TO MOVE WITH A
SHALLOWER LAYER MEAN FLOW.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY SOUTH
OF AND FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.
 
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      21/2100Z 16.3N 121.0W    60 KT
 12HR VT     22/0600Z 16.5N 122.1W    60 KT
 24HR VT     22/1800Z 16.8N 123.5W    55 KT
 36HR VT     23/0600Z 17.2N 125.3W    45 KT
 48HR VT     23/1800Z 17.5N 127.0W    35 KT
 72HR VT     24/1800Z 17.5N 131.0W    25 KT...DISSIPATING
 96HR VT     25/1800Z 17.5N 135.0W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT     26/1800Z 17.5N 139.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 
 
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