Tropical Depression FOUR-E

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TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 AM PDT MON JUL 19 2004
 
THERE IS NO GOOD CONSENSUS ABOUT THE LOCATION OR INTENSITY OF THE
DEPRESSION THIS MORNING FROM THE SATELLITE CLASSIFICATION AGENCIES. 
DVORAK T NUMBERS RANGE FROM 1.0 TO 2.5...AND THE LOCATIONS VARY BY
ABOUT 90 MILES.  GIVEN THIS...AND WITH FIRST VISIBLE IMAGES JUST
STARTING TO COME IN...THE INITIAL INTENSITY AND MOTION LARGELY
FOLLOW CONTINUITY FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.  THERE HAS BEEN A
GRADUAL INCREASE IN CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER OVER THE PAST 12
HOURS...SO THE DEPRESSION MAY HAVE REACHED STORM STRENGTH. 
HOWEVER...I PREFER TO WAIT FOR VISIBLE IMAGERY BEFORE UPGRADING THE
SYSTEM.

UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW CONTINUES TO BE WELL-DEFINED OVER THE NORTHWEST
QUADRANT OF THE SYSTEM.  THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
OVER WARM WATERS AND IN A LOW SHEAR ENVIRONMENT FOR AT LEAST 72
HOURS. ON THE OTHER HAND...THE RELATIVELY STABLE AIR MASS IN THE
ENVIRONMENT SHOULD TEND TO LIMIT DEVELOPMENT.  DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE
IS UNANIMOUS IN SHOWING LITTLE OR NO STRENGTHENING...WHILE THE
STATISTICAL SHIPS MODEL BRINGS THE DEPRESSION UP TO 55 KT.  THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE SHIPS GUIDANCE.
NEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD THE CYCLONE SHOULD BE MOVING
OVER COOLER WATERS AND BEGINNING TO WEAKEN. 
 
THE MOTION CONTINUES GENERALLY WESTWARD.  A MID-LEVEL RIDGE SHOULD
REMAIN ESTABLISHED TO THE NORTH OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...RESULTING IN A MAINLY WESTWARD TRACK DURING THE
FORECAST PERIOD.  THE CURRENT OFFICIAL FORECAST IS JUST SLIGHTLY
NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY BUT REMAINS ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF
THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.  BOTH THE NOGAPS AND GFNI SHOW A SLOWER AND
MORE NORTHWARD MOTION BUT THE NOGAPS AT LEAST DOES NOT APPEAR TO
HAVE THE CYCLONE INITIALIZED WELL.  
 
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      19/1500Z 14.5N 115.7W    30 KT
 12HR VT     20/0000Z 14.7N 117.3W    35 KT
 24HR VT     20/1200Z 15.1N 119.4W    40 KT
 36HR VT     21/0000Z 15.5N 121.5W    45 KT
 48HR VT     21/1200Z 16.0N 123.5W    50 KT
 72HR VT     22/1200Z 16.5N 127.5W    50 KT
 96HR VT     23/1200Z 16.5N 131.5W    45 KT
120HR VT     24/1200Z 16.5N 136.0W    45 KT
 
 
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