Tropical Storm AGATHA

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TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 AM PDT SAT MAY 22 2004
 
THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED DURING THE
PAST FEW HOURS. DEEP CONVECTION CONTINUES TO BE PRIMARILY WITHIN A
CURVED BAND TO THE WEST OF THE CENTER AND THE OUTFLOW IS
WELL-ESTABLISHED. INITIAL INTENSITY IS ESTIMATED TO BE 30 KNOTS.
BECAUSE THE SHEAR IS LOW...THE DEPRESSION HAS THE CHANCE TO REACH
TROPICAL STORM STATUS WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS BEFORE IT
ENCOUNTERS STABLE AIR AND COOL WATERS. WEAKENING SHOULD THEN BEGIN.
SHIPS MODEL BRINGS THE INTENSITY TO 37 KNOTS ONLY AND IN FACT...
BOTH GFDL AND UK MODELS DISSIPATE THE CYCLONE IN ABOUT A DAY.
 
THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT 7 KNOTS.
STEERING CURRENTS ARE FORECAST TO COLLAPSE IN A DAY OR TWO SO...A
VERY SLOW MOTION TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS ANTICIPATED. THERE IS
GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG GLOBAL MODELS THAT THE MOTION SHOULD BECOME
ERRATIC BEYOND 48 HOURS.
 
FORECASTER AVILA
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      22/0900Z 15.3N 108.5W    30 KT
 12HR VT     22/1800Z 15.8N 109.4W    35 KT
 24HR VT     23/0600Z 16.0N 110.0W    35 KT
 36HR VT     23/1800Z 16.5N 110.5W    30 KT
 48HR VT     24/0600Z 17.0N 111.5W    30 KT
 72HR VT     25/0600Z 17.5N 112.0W    25 KT
 96HR VT     26/0600Z 17.5N 112.0W    20 KT REMNANT LOW
120HR VT     27/0600Z 17.6N 112.1W    20 KT REMNANT LOW
 
 
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