Hurricane KARL

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HURRICANE KARL DISCUSSION NUMBER  20
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT TUE SEP 21 2004
 
DVORAK T-NUMBERS HAVE COME DOWN A LITTLE AS THE WELL DEFINED EYE
FROM A FEW HOURS AGO IS NOT SEEN THIS MORNING.  ALSO THE CDO
FEATURE IS A LITTLE RAGGED AND IT APPEARS THAT VERTICAL SHEAR IS
CURRENTLY IMPINGING ON THE SOUTHWEST AND NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF
THE DEEP CONVECTION.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS DECREASED TO 110 KT. 
THE STRONG SHEAR MAY BE TEMPORARY AS THE SHIPS MODEL SUGGESTS LIGHT
SHEAR AND LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH UNTIL KARL REACHES COLD SSTS IN
ABOUT 72 HOURS AND BEGINS TO LOSE TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION IS 335/12.  THE TRACK FORECAST SCENARIO REMAINS
THE SAME AS IN PREVIOUS ADVISORIES.  KARL IS EXPECTED TO TURN
TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST WITH SOME ACCELERATION IN A DAY OR TWO
AROUND A RIDGE TO ITS EAST AND THEN GET DRAWN TOWARD A POWERFUL
EXTRATROPICAL MID-LEVEL LOW DROPPING SOUTHWARD OVER THE FAR NORTH
ATLANTIC.  THE FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY
AND IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A CONSENSUS OF THE GLOBAL TRACK MODELS.
 
FORECASTER LAWRENCE
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      21/1500Z 21.4N  48.0W   110 KT
 12HR VT     22/0000Z 23.0N  48.8W   120 KT
 24HR VT     22/1200Z 25.5N  49.6W   115 KT
 36HR VT     23/0000Z 28.0N  48.6W   110 KT
 48HR VT     23/1200Z 30.9N  46.9W   105 KT
 72HR VT     24/1200Z 38.2N  44.4W    85 KT
 96HR VT     25/1200Z 45.0N  45.0W    65 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT     26/1200Z 50.0N  42.0W    50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 
 
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