Tropical Storm JEANNE

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TROPICAL STORM JEANNE DISCUSSION NUMBER  11
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT THU SEP 16 2004
 
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE REMAINS AT 295/8. JEANNE HAS ACTUALLY
BEEN MOVING DUE WEST ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN COAST OF PUERTO RICO
AND THE MONA PASSAGE FOR THE PAST 12 HOURS...BUT A MORE
REPRESENTATIVE 24-HOUR MOTION IS 295 DEGREES. THIS MOTION...COULD
BRING JEANNE NEAR THE NORTHERN COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
LATER TODAY. ALL THE GLOBAL MODELS MOVE JEANNE ON A WEST-NORTHWEST
TRACK FOR THE FIRST 36-48 HOURS BUT AT DIFFERENT SPEEDS WHICH HAS
IMPORTANT RAMIFICATIONS FOR THE LONGER FORECAST PERIODS. THE
GFDL...NOGAPS...UKMET AND GUNS END UP NEAR THE SOUTHEAST US
COASTLINE IN 120 HOURS. THE GFS TRACK MOVES A LOT SLOWER AND ALLOWS
AN AMPLIFYING RIDGE FROM THE NORTH TO BLOCK THE SYSTEM AND
EVENTUALLY MOVE IT WESTWARD. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST LIES BETWEEN
THESE TWO SCENARIOS AND IS AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
TRACK.  
 
JEANNE HAS A WELL-DEFINED INNER-CORE CIRCULATION...AS SEEN BY THE
SAN JUAN RADAR...AND A WELL-DEFINED EYE IS VISIBLE IN SATELLITE
IMAGERY. THE LATEST RECON REPORTED A 989 MB PRESSURE AND A
DROPSONDE MEASURED A 63 KT SURFACE WIND IN THE NORTHEAST EYEWALL. 
OBVIOUSLY...IT IS CLOSE TO HURRICANE INTENSITY BUT IS ABOUT TO
INTERACT WITH THE COASTLINE OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. 
THEREFORE...I AM GOING TO KEEP IT AT 60 KTS DURING THIS INTERACTION
AND MAKE IT A HURRICANE WHEN IT MOVES AWAY FROM LAND IN ABOUT 24
HOURS.  THE SHIPS AND GFDL INTENSITY FORECASTS CALL FOR SLOW
DEVELOPMENT EVEN WITH THE MODERATE SHEAR FORECAST FOR THE SYSTEM IN
THE MEDIUM RANGE.  THE SHEAR SHOULD LESSEN IN THE LONGER RANGE AND
THE SYSTEM SHOULD CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN. 
 
FORECASTER JARVINEN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      16/0900Z 18.8N  68.1W    60 KT
 12HR VT     16/1800Z 19.4N  69.2W    60 KT
 24HR VT     17/0600Z 20.4N  70.9W    65 KT
 36HR VT     17/1800Z 21.2N  72.6W    70 KT
 48HR VT     18/0600Z 22.3N  74.2W    75 KT
 72HR VT     19/0600Z 24.4N  77.0W    85 KT
 96HR VT     20/0600Z 27.0N  78.0W    85 KT
120HR VT     21/0600Z 30.0N  79.0W    85 KT
 
 
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