Hurricane DANIELLE

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TROPICAL STORM DANIELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  28
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT FRI AUG 20 2004
 
THE MOTION HAS BEEN SLOW AND ERRATIC WITH A GENERAL NORTHEASTWARD
DRIFT FOR THE PAST 24 HOURS.  THE GFS MODEL SHOWS A MID-LEVEL LOW
CUTTING OFF NEAR 30N 55W OVER THE NEXT THREE DAYS WITH GOOD
AGREEMENT OF THE GLOBAL MODELS ABOUT A GRADUAL INCREASE IN A
NORTHWARD COMPONENT OF MOTION.  THERE IS LESS AGREEMENT ABOUT THE
EAST-WEST COMPONENT OF MOTION WITH ABOUT A 400 N MI EAST-WEST
SPREAD IN THE MODELS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS A LITTLE TO
THE RIGHT OF A CONSENSUS OF THE MODELS AND SHOWS A SLOW NORTHWEST
TO NORTHWARD TRACK OVER THE NEXT 120 HOURS.

DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS ARE BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH AND HAVE
NOT CHANGED IN THE PAST 6 HOURS.  SOME CONVECTION CONTINUES TO FIRE
UP TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER.  THE LATEST MICROWAVE DATA IS THE
SAME USED TO JUSTIFY KEEPING 35 KT IN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.  SO
THE WIND WILL BE KEPT AT 35 KT AGAIN IN THIS ADVISORY.  STRONG
SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR IS EVIDENT OVER THE STORM AND THIS SHOULD BRING
DANIELLE TO BELOW STORM STRENGTH SHORTLY...IF IT HAS NOT ALREADY
DONE SO.

FORECASTER LAWRENCE
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      20/0900Z 30.3N  37.0W    35 KT
 12HR VT     20/1800Z 30.5N  36.9W    30 KT
 24HR VT     21/0600Z 30.8N  37.0W    25 KT
 36HR VT     21/1800Z 31.1N  37.4W    25 KT
 48HR VT     22/0600Z 31.5N  38.0W    25 KT
 72HR VT     23/0600Z 33.0N  38.5W    25 KT
 96HR VT     24/0600Z 35.0N  39.0W    25 KT
120HR VT     25/0600Z 37.0N  39.0W    25 KT
 
 
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