Hurricane DANIELLE

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TROPICAL STORM DANIELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  21
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT WED AUG 18 2004
 
SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT DANIELLE IS WEAKENING. THE LOW LEVEL
CENTER IS TO THE SOUTH OF THE CONVECTION AND THE CLOUD PATTERN IS
HIGHLY DISRUPTED. CONSEQUENTLY...DVORAK T-NUMBERS ARE DECREASING
AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 55 KNOTS. SINCE SHEAR IS
EXPECTED TO INCREASE AND DANIELLE IS FORECAST TO MOVE OVER COOLER
WATERS...ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS ANTICIPATED. THE INTENSITY FORECAST
IS CLOSE TO SHIPS MODEL. THE CYCLONE COULD BECOME EXTRATROPICAL
BEYOND 72 HOURS.
 
DANIELLE IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD OR 015 DEGREES AT 10 KNOTS.
THE STEERING CURRENTS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAINS WEAK...THEREFORE
DANIELLE IS FORECAST TO MOVE SLOWLY TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST AND
NORTHEAST AND...ACCELERATION IS NOT EXPECTED UNTIL THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT WEAKENING OCCURS
FASTER THAN ANTICIPATED AND DANIELLE BECOMES A SHALLOW REMNANT LOW.
IT COULD THEN MEANDER FOR A FEW DAYS AS INDICATED BY THE GFS AND IN
FACT...THE GFDL IS NOW SLOWING DOWN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN TUNE
WITH THE GFS.
  
FORECASTER STEWART
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      18/1500Z 28.5N  39.5W    55 KT
 12HR VT     19/0000Z 30.2N  39.3W    50 KT
 24HR VT     19/1200Z 31.5N  39.0W    40 KT
 36HR VT     20/0000Z 32.5N  37.5W    30 KT
 48HR VT     20/1200Z 33.5N  36.0W    25 KT
 72HR VT     21/1200Z 35.0N  33.5W    25 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
 96HR VT     22/1200Z 37.0N  29.5W    25 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT     23/1200Z 44.0N  18.0W    25 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 
 
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