Hurricane DANIELLE

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HURRICANE DANIELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  13
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT MON AUG 16 2004
 
SATELLITE VISIBLE AND ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY...AND A 16/0953Z
SSMI/I PASS DEPICT A 14 NM IRREGULAR EYE WITH STRONG CONVECTION
REMAINING OVER THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN QUADRANTS. THE SSMI/I PASS
ALSO REVEALED THAT THE EYEWALL WAS MORE INTENSE OVER THE NORTHERN
PORTION. VISIBLE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE EYE HAS BECOME LESS
CLOUD-FILLED DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS. DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM
TAFB...SAB...AND AFWA REMAIN AT T-NUMBERS OF 5.0
RESPECTIVELY...THEREFORE THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS AT 90 KT.
 
INITIAL MOTION IS 315/15...AND AS EXPECTED...SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT
OF THE PREVIOUS MOTION. THE MAJORITY OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE
INDICATES A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTH BY DAY 2 WITH A RECURVE
TOWARD THE AZORES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
HOWEVER...THE GFS CONTINUES TO SHOW A MOTION TO THE LEFT OF THE
CONSENSUS...WHICH WOULD SUGGEST AN AGGRESSIVE WEAKENING TREND AS
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE MOVES BENEATH THE UPPER SOUTHWESTERLIES
ASSOCIATED WITH A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO THE WEST. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST THROUGH
24 HOURS...AFTERWARD REMAINING CONSISTENT WITH THE CONSENSUS...AND
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
 
A WEAKENING TREND IS EXPECTED BEYOND THE 12 HOUR PERIOD AS DANIELLE
MOVES BENEATH THE SOUTHWESTERLIES ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH TO THE
WEST. THEREFORE...THE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR A WEAKENING
THROUGH THE PERIOD...WHICH IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND
THE SHIPS GUIDANCE.
 
FORECASTER ROBERTS/LAWRENCE
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      16/1500Z 18.2N  37.7W    90 KT
 12HR VT     17/0000Z 19.5N  38.8W    85 KT
 24HR VT     17/1200Z 21.8N  40.3W    80 KT
 36HR VT     18/0000Z 24.1N  41.2W    75 KT
 48HR VT     18/1200Z 26.6N  41.6W    70 KT
 72HR VT     19/1200Z 30.5N  40.5W    60 KT
 96HR VT     20/1200Z 34.0N  37.0W    50 KT
120HR VT     21/1200Z 37.0N  31.5W    40 KT
 
 
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