Tropical Storm BONNIE

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TROPICAL STORM BONNIE DISCUSSION NUMBER  13
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT WED AUG 11 2004
 
LATEST RECONNAISSANCE REPORTS INDICATE THAT BONNIE HAS NOT CHANGED
MUCH.  THE PRESSURE WAS DOWN A BIT...1001 MB...AND THE PEAK FLIGHT
LEVEL WINDS WERE 44 KT.  A DROPSONDE REPORTED SURFACE WINDS OF 41
KT.  BASED ON THESE DATA...THE INITIAL INTENSITY ESTIMATE REMAINS
40 KT.  DEEP CONVECTION HAS BEEN LIMITED FOR THE LAST 12 HOURS BUT
HAS BEEN INCREASING MARKEDLY OVER THE PAST COUPLE HOURS...AND THE
AIRCRAFT CREW REPORTED THAT BONNIE HAS A PARTIAL EYEWALL AGAIN. 
BONNIE WILL BE PASSING OVER VERY WARM WATER AND HAS ANOTHER 12
HOURS OR SO UNDER LIGHT SHEAR CONDITIONS...SO THERE IS STILL AN
OPPORTUNITY FOR STRENGTHENING.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE SHIPS GUIDANCE...BUT QUITE A BIT LESS THAN THE
GFDL WHICH CONTINUES TO MAKE BONNIE A HURRICANE.  AS BONNIE
APPROACHES THE COASTLINE...THE SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE AND BE
A LIMITING FACTOR ON INTENSIFICATION.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 000/4.  THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE TO THE
FORECAST TRACK OR SYNOPTIC REASONING.  DATA FROM THE G-IV JET
MISSION LAST NIGHT SHOW MID-LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW IS ABOUT TO SCOOP
BONNIE UP.  MODEL GUIDANCE IS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED ON A NORTHEASTWARD
TRACK THAT SHOULD TAKE BONNIE TO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE WITHIN 30-36
HOURS.  

FORECASTER FRANKLIN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      11/0900Z 25.5N  90.5W    40 KT
 12HR VT     11/1800Z 26.7N  89.7W    45 KT
 24HR VT     12/0600Z 28.6N  88.0W    50 KT
 36HR VT     12/1800Z 31.0N  85.0W    35 KT...INLAND
 48HR VT     13/0600Z 34.0N  81.5W    30 KT...INLAND
 72HR VT     14/0600Z 43.0N  72.5W    30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 96HR VT     15/0600Z...ABSORBED
 
 
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