Hurricane ALEX

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HURRICANE ALEX DISCUSSION NUMBER  17
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT WED AUG 04 2004
 
ALEX IS STILL A HEALTHY CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE...WITH GOOD
ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW ALOFT IN ALL QUADRANTS AND A RAGGED EYE
EMBEDDED WITHIN RINGS OF DEEP CONVECTION.  SUBJECTIVE DVORAK
INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 65 KT FROM TAFB AND AFWA AND 77 KT FROM
SAB...AND RECENT 3-HOURLY OBJECTIVE T NUMBERS ALSO SUPPORT 77 KT. 
AS A RESULT...THE INTENSITY IS DECREASED ONLY TO 75 KT.

THE HURRICANE IS GRADUALLY ACCELERATING...NOW MOVING TOWARD THE
EAST-NORTHEAST AT AN ESTIMATED 065/17.  STEERING BY A STRONG
WESTERLY MIDLATITUDE CURRENT SHOULD FORCE A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN
SPEED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TO THE
EAST.  ALEX IS CURRENTLY OVER SST NEAR 26C...BUT IN A DAY OR TWO
THE SYSTEM WILL BE OVER MUCH COOLER WATERS...ABOUT 20 C..AS THE
HURRICANE ALSO BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH A MIDDLE LATITUDE FRONTAL
SYSTEM.  THEREFORE...EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION IS FORECAST AT 36
HOURS.
 
FORECASTER KNABB/AVILA
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      04/1500Z 37.7N  69.0W    75 KT
 12HR VT     05/0000Z 38.8N  65.8W    70 KT
 24HR VT     05/1200Z 40.6N  60.6W    65 KT
 36HR VT     06/0000Z 43.1N  53.3W    60 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 48HR VT     06/1200Z 45.2N  44.6W    55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 72HR VT     07/1200Z 45.0N  26.0W    45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 96HR VT     08/1200Z 46.5N  14.0W    40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT     09/1200Z 50.5N   6.5W    40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 
 
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