Tropical Storm ALEX

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TROPICAL STORM ALEX DISCUSSION NUMBER  11
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT MON AUG 02 2004
 
DOPPLER RADAR DATA AND RECONNAISSANCE REPORTS INDICATE ALEX HAS
DEVELOPED A 10 NMI DIAMETER EYE. A 03/119Z RECON REPORT ALSO CAME
IN WITH A SURFACE PRESSURE OF 987 MB. THE HIGHEST WIND REPORTED AT
THE 850 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL HAS BEEN 69 KT IN THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT...
WHICH IS CONSISTENT WITH SOME 64+ KT WINDS NOTED IN DOPPLER VELOCITY
DATA BEFORE THE DATA BECAME RANGE OBSCURED. THE 69-KT FLIGHT-LEVEL
WIND WOULD EQUATE TO ABOUT 56 KT SURFACE WINDS...BUT THE 987 MB
PRESSURE IS TYPICAL OF SOME HURRICANES. THE INTENSITY HAS BEEN
INCREASED TO 60 KT BASED ON THE CENTRAL PRESSURE...THE SMALL
EYE...AND THE ASSUMPTION THAT SOME STRONGER WINDS EXIST IN THE
NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE WHERE THE STRONGEST CONVECTION IS OCCURRING.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION IS 040/08. ALEX HAS MADE A SLIGHT TURN TO RIGHT
...BUT IT IS ESSENTIALLY ON THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK. THERE IS
SOME DISAGREEMENT AMONG SEVERAL OF THE NHC MODELS. THE 03/00Z
INTERPOLATED MODEL TRACKS FROM THE CURRENT POSITION KEEP ALEX WELL
OFFSHORE THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST...WHILE THE 02/18Z GFS AND NOGAPS
MODEL RUNS MOVE ALEX INLAND NEAR CAPE LOOKOUT NORTH CAROLINA IN
ABOUT 18 HOURS. THE 03/00Z UPPER-AIR DATA INDICATES A NORTHERLY
40-45 KT WIND MAXIMUM ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE APPROACHING MID-LEVEL
TROUGH OVER THE MISSOURI VALLEY...WHICH WOULD SUGGEST THAT THE
TROUGH SHOULD DIG A LITTLE MORE SOUTHWARD BEFORE IT PUSHES
EASTWARD. THIS WOULD CAUSE THE MID-LEVEL STEERING FLOW TO BACK
SLIGHTLY TO A MORE SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD DIRECTION AND HELP TO PULL
ALEX A LITTLE MORE NORTHWARD LIKE THE 18Z GFS AND NOGAPS MODELS ARE
SUGGESTING. THE OFFICIAL TRACK IS JUST A TAD TO THE LEFT OF THE
PREVIOUS TRACK AND SOUTH OF THE 18Z NOGAPS AND GFS SOLUTIONS...BUT
BRINGS ALEX VERY CLOSE TO THE OUTER BANKS IN ABOUT 12-18 HOURS.

ALEX ONLY HAS ABOUT 12 TO PROBABLY NO MORE THAN 24 HOURS LEFT TO
INTENSIFY AS SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO SIGNIFICANTLY
INCREASE AFTER THAT. BUT THERE IS PLENTY OF WARM WATER AHEAD UNTIL
THAT TIME...SO ALEX STILL HAS AN EXCELLENT CHANCE TO BECOME A
HURRICANE...AND IT COULD PEAK AROUND 70 KT BETWEEN FORECAST TIMES.
 
FORECASTER STEWART
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      03/0300Z 32.8N  77.8W    60 KT
 12HR VT     03/1200Z 34.1N  76.8W    65 KT
 24HR VT     04/0000Z 35.7N  74.3W    65 KT
 36HR VT     04/1200Z 37.4N  70.7W    60 KT
 48HR VT     05/0000Z 39.9N  64.6W    55 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
 72HR VT     06/0000Z 43.5N  52.0W    45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 96HR VT     07/0000Z...ABSORBED BY EXTRATROPICAL LOW
 
 
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