Hurricane PATRICIA
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HURRICANE PATRICIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162003
1500Z WED OCT 22 2003
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.3N 106.9W AT 22/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 8 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 987 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT.
64 KT....... 25NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT....... 50NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT....... 90NE 90SE 60SW 90NW.
12 FT SEAS..100NE 100SE 100SW 100NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.3N 106.9W AT 22/1500Z
AT 22/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.2N 106.5W
FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 12.6N 108.0W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 90SW 90NW.
FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 13.3N 109.0W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 90SW 90NW.
FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 14.1N 110.2W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 90SW 90NW.
FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 15.0N 111.0W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 90SW 90NW.
FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 17.0N 112.0W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 60NW.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 26/1200Z 18.5N 112.5W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
OUTLOOK VALID 27/1200Z 20.0N 112.5W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.3N 106.9W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/2100Z
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
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