Tropical Storm PATRICIA
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TROPICAL STORM PATRICIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162003
2100Z MON OCT 20 2003
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.5N 101.7W AT 20/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 9 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT....... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.5N 101.7W AT 20/2100Z
AT 20/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 10.3N 101.3W
FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 10.9N 103.1W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 75NE 75SE 75SW 75NW.
FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 11.6N 104.9W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 75NE 75SE 75SW 75NW.
FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 12.6N 106.5W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 90SW 90NW.
FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 13.5N 108.0W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 90SW 90NW.
FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 15.5N 109.5W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 90SW 90NW.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 24/1800Z 17.5N 110.5W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
OUTLOOK VALID 25/1800Z 19.5N 110.5W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 10.5N 101.7W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/0300Z
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
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