Hurricane ISABEL
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HURRICANE ISABEL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 46
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132003
1500Z WED SEP 17 2003
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM CAPE FEAR NORTH CAROLINA
TO CHINCOTEAGUE VIRGINA...INCLUDING PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE
SOUNDS...AND THE CHESAPEAKE BAY SOUTH OF SMITH POINT. A HURRICANE
WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE
WARNING AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 24 HOURS.
ALL PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO
COMPLETION IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA.
AT 11 AM...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS REPLACED THE HURRICANE WATCH
SOUTH OF CAPE FEAR TO SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA...AND NORTH
OF CHINCOTEAGUE TO SANDY HOOK NEW JERSEY...INCLUDING DELAWARE BAY.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS ALSO REPLACED THE HURRICANE WATCH FOR
THE CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM SMITH POINT NORTHWARD...AND FOR THE TIDAL
POTOMAC.
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.0N 72.6W AT 17/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 335 DEGREES AT 8 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 957 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 95 KT WITH GUSTS TO 115 KT.
64 KT.......100NE 80SE 60SW 90NW.
50 KT.......125NE 100SE 80SW 125NW.
34 KT.......275NE 250SE 150SW 200NW.
12 FT SEAS..650NE 450SE 400SW 480NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.0N 72.6W AT 17/1500Z
AT 17/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 29.6N 72.4W
FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 31.4N 73.5W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT...100NE 80SE 60SW 90NW.
50 KT...125NE 100SE 80SW 125NW.
34 KT...275NE 250SE 150SW 200NW.
FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 33.6N 75.4W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT...100NE 80SE 60SW 75NW.
50 KT...125NE 100SE 80SW 100NW.
34 KT...275NE 200SE 150SW 200NW.
FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 36.0N 77.3W...INLAND
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT...100NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT...125NE 100SE 50SW 50NW.
34 KT...275NE 200SE 100SW 125NW.
FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 39.0N 79.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...175NE 175SE 50SW 50NW.
FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 49.0N 77.0W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 275 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 375 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 21/1200Z 58.0N 70.0W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.
OUTLOOK VALID 22/1200Z...ABSORBED BY EXTRATROPICAL LOW
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 30.0N 72.6W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/2100Z
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
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