Hurricane ISABEL

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HURRICANE ISABEL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  39
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL132003
2100Z MON SEP 15 2003
 
INTERESTS FROM THE CAROLINAS NORTHWARD TO SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND...ALONG THE COAST AND INLAND...SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF ISABEL.
 
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.6N  70.0W AT 15/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  15 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT   7 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  949 MB
EYE DIAMETER  45 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 110 KT WITH GUSTS TO 135 KT.
64 KT....... 90NE  90SE  70SW  70NW.
50 KT.......125NE 140SE  90SW  90NW.
34 KT.......180NE 180SE 140SW 150NW.
12 FT SEAS..600NE 300SE 200SW 600NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.6N  70.0W AT 15/2100Z
AT 15/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 25.3N  69.8W
 
FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 26.3N  70.8W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 90NE  90SE  70SW  70NW.
50 KT...125NE 140SE  90SW  90NW.
34 KT...180NE 180SE 140SW 150NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 27.5N  71.6W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 90NE  90SE  70SW  70NW.
50 KT...125NE 140SE  90SW  90NW.
34 KT...180NE 180SE 140SW 150NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 29.0N  72.3W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 90NE  90SE  70SW  70NW.
50 KT...125NE 140SE  90SW  90NW.
34 KT...180NE 180SE 140SW 150NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 30.8N  73.2W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
50 KT...150NE 150SE  90SW  90NW.
34 KT...200NE 200SE 120SW 120NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 35.5N  76.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
50 KT...150NE 150SE  70SW  70NW.
34 KT...300NE 200SE 120SW 120NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 275 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 375 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 19/1800Z 42.0N  79.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 20/1800Z 52.0N  80.0W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 25.6N  70.0W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/0300Z
 
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
 
 
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